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Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1351646834 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 378
Book Description
Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Görgen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).
Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1351646834 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 378
Book Description
Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Görgen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).
Author: J. Flamm Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401124388 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 323
Book Description
The ever increasing public demand and the setting-up of national and international legislation on safety assessment of potentially dangerous plants require that a correspondingly increased effort be devoted by regulatory bodies and industrial organisations to collect reliability data in order to produce safety analyses. Reliability data are also needed to assess availability of plants and services and to improve quality of production processes, in particular, to meet the needs of plant operators and/or designers regarding maintenance planning, production availability, etc. The need for an educational effort in the field of data acquisition and processing has been stressed within the framework of EuReDatA, an association of organisations operating reliability data banks. This association aims to promote data exchange and pooling of data between organisations and to encourage the adoption of compatible standards and basic definitions for a consistent exchange of reliability data. Such basic definitions are considered to be essential in order to improve data quality. To cover issues directly linked to the above areas ample space is devoted to the definition of failure events, common cause and human error data, feedback of operational and disturbance data, event data analysis, lifetime distributions, cumulative distribution functions, density functions, Bayesian inference methods, multivariate analysis, fuzzy sets and possibility theory, etc.
Author: Baoping Cai Publisher: Springer ISBN: 9811365164 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 257
Book Description
This book presents a bibliographical review of the use of Bayesian networks in reliability over the last decade. Bayesian network (BN) is considered to be one of the most powerful models in probabilistic knowledge representation and inference, and it is increasingly used in the field of reliability. After focusing on the engineering systems, the book subsequently discusses twelve important issues in the BN-based reliability methodologies, such as BN structure modeling, BN parameter modeling, BN inference, validation, and verification. As such, it is a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of reliability engineering.
Author: Anca M. Hanea Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030464741 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 503
Book Description
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Author: Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0128235225 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 316
Book Description
Reliability Analysis and Asset Management of Engineering Systems explains methods that can be used to evaluate reliability and availability of complex systems, including simulation-based methods. The increasing digitization of mechanical processes driven by Industry 4.0 increases the interaction between machines and monitoring and control systems, leading to increases in system complexity. For those systems the reliability and availability analyses are increasingly challenging, as the interaction between machines has become more complex, and the analysis of the flexibility of the production systems to respond to machinery failure may require advanced simulation techniques. This book fills a gap on how to deal with such complex systems by linking the concepts of systems reliability and asset management, and then making these solutions more accessible to industry by explaining the availability analysis of complex systems based on simulation methods that emphasise Petri nets. Explains how to use a monitoring database to perform important tasks including an update of complex systems reliability Shows how to diagnose probable machinery-based causes of system performance degradation by using a monitoring database and reliability estimates in an integrated way Describes practical techniques for the application of AI and machine learning methods to fault detection and diagnosis problems
Author: Jean-Pierre Signoret Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030647080 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 878
Book Description
This book provides, as simply as possible, sound foundations for an in-depth understanding of reliability engineering with regard to qualitative analysis, modelling, and probabilistic calculations of safety and production systems. Drawing on the authors’ extensive experience within the field of reliability engineering, it addresses and discusses a variety of topics, including: • Background and overview of safety and dependability studies; • Explanation and critical analysis of definitions related to core concepts; • Risk identification through qualitative approaches (preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, FMECA, etc.); • Modelling of industrial systems through static (fault tree, reliability block diagram), sequential (cause-consequence diagrams, event trees, LOPA, bowtie), and dynamic (Markov graphs, Petri nets) approaches; • Probabilistic calculations through state-of-the-art analytical or Monte Carlo simulation techniques; • Analysis, modelling, and calculations of common cause failure and uncertainties; • Linkages and combinations between the various modelling and calculation approaches; • Reliability data collection and standardization. The book features illustrations, explanations, examples, and exercises to help readers gain a detailed understanding of the topic and implement it into their own work. Further, it analyses the production availability of production systems and the functional safety of safety systems (SIL calculations), showcasing specific applications of the general theory discussed. Given its scope, this book is a valuable resource for engineers, software designers, standard developers, professors, and students.
Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1498729614 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 255
Book Description
Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Görgen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).
Author: Alan L Buchman Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1138001236 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 3428
Book Description
This evidence-based book serves as a clinical manual as well as a reference guide for the diagnosis and management of common nutritional issues in relation to gastrointestinal disease. Chapters cover nutrition assessment; macro- and micronutrient absorption; malabsorption; food allergies; prebiotics and dietary fiber; probiotics and intestinal microflora; nutrition and GI cancer; nutritional management of reflux; nutrition in IBS and IBD; nutrition in acute and chronic pancreatitis; enteral nutrition; parenteral nutrition; medical and endoscopic therapy of obesity; surgical therapy of obesity; pharmacologic nutrition, and nutritional counseling.
Author: Mohammad Modarres Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1420008943 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 472
Book Description
Tools to Proactively Predict Failure The prediction of failures involves uncertainty, and problems associated with failures are inherently probabilistic. Their solution requires optimal tools to analyze strength of evidence and understand failure events and processes to gauge confidence in a design’s reliability. Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide, Second Edition has already introduced a generation of engineers to the practical methods and techniques used in reliability and risk studies applicable to numerous disciplines. Written for both practicing professionals and engineering students, this comprehensive overview of reliability and risk analysis techniques has been fully updated, expanded, and revised to meet current needs. It concentrates on reliability analysis of complex systems and their components and also presents basic risk analysis techniques. Since reliability analysis is a multi-disciplinary subject, the scope of this book applies to most engineering disciplines, and its content is primarily based on the materials used in undergraduate and graduate-level courses at the University of Maryland. This book has greatly benefited from its authors' industrial experience. It balances a mixture of basic theory and applications and presents a large number of examples to illustrate various technical subjects. A proven educational tool, this bestselling classic will serve anyone working on real-life failure analysis and prediction problems.
Author: E.G. Frankel Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9400969201 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 435
Book Description
Ernst G. Frankel This book has its origin in lecture notes developed over several years for use in a course in Systems Reliability for engineers concerned with the design of physical systems such as civil structures, power plants, and transport vehicles of all types. Increasing public concern with the reliability o~ systems for reasons of human safety, environmental protection, and acceptable ir. vestment risk limitations has resulted in an increasing interest by engineers in the formal applica~i0n of reliability theory to e~gineering desian. At the same time there is a demand for more effective approaches to the des~gn of procedures for the operation and use of man-made syste~s and more meaningful assessment of the risks intr)duction and use of such a system poses both when operating as designed and when operating at below design performance. The purpose of the book is to provide a sound, yet practical, introduction to reliability analysis and risk assessment which can be used by professionals in engineering, planning, management, and economics to improve the design, operation, and risk assessment of systems of interest. The text should be useful for students in many disciplines and is designed for fourth~year undergraduates or first-year graduate students. I would like to acknowledge the help of many of my graduate students who contributed to the development of this book by offering comments and criticism. Similarly I would like to thank Mrs.
Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo
Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo
Author: J. Flamm
Author: Baoping Cai
Author: Anca M. Hanea
Author: Gilberto Francisco Martha de Souza
Author: Jean-Pierre Signoret
Author: Rodrigo A. Collazo
Author: Alan L Buchman
Author: Mohammad Modarres
Author: E.G. Frankel