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Agents of Uncertainty

Agents of Uncertainty PDF Author: John Danvers
Publisher: Brill Rodopi
ISBN: 9789042035126
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 219

Book Description
Through an analysis of many different examples, Danvers articulates a new way of thinking about mysticism and scepticism, not as opposite poles of the philosophical spectrum, but as two fields of enquiry with overlapping aims and methods. Prompted by a deep sense of wonder at being alive, many mystics and sceptics, like the Buddha, practice disciplines of doubt in order to become free of attachment to fixed appearances, essences and viewpoints, and in doing so they find peace and equanimity. They develop ways of living with impermanence and the unexpected by letting go of adherence to dogmatic beliefs and by suspending judgement. In common with many artists and poets they act as agents of uncertainty, actively disturbing the routines and habits of day-to-day thought and behaviour in order to demonstrate how to maintain a sense of balance and spontaneity in the midst of life s difficulties. Topics explored include: being and self as process; mysticism and language; scepticism and dogmatism; Buddhism, interdependence and emptiness; Daoism and impermanence; dialectics of doubt in art and poetry. Written in a lively and accessible style, accompanied by drawings and photographs by the author, this volume is aimed at scholars, artists, teachers, and anyone interested in philosophy, religion, art, poetry and ways of being."

Agents of Uncertainty

Agents of Uncertainty PDF Author: John Danvers
Publisher: Brill Rodopi
ISBN: 9789042035126
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 219

Book Description
Through an analysis of many different examples, Danvers articulates a new way of thinking about mysticism and scepticism, not as opposite poles of the philosophical spectrum, but as two fields of enquiry with overlapping aims and methods. Prompted by a deep sense of wonder at being alive, many mystics and sceptics, like the Buddha, practice disciplines of doubt in order to become free of attachment to fixed appearances, essences and viewpoints, and in doing so they find peace and equanimity. They develop ways of living with impermanence and the unexpected by letting go of adherence to dogmatic beliefs and by suspending judgement. In common with many artists and poets they act as agents of uncertainty, actively disturbing the routines and habits of day-to-day thought and behaviour in order to demonstrate how to maintain a sense of balance and spontaneity in the midst of life s difficulties. Topics explored include: being and self as process; mysticism and language; scepticism and dogmatism; Buddhism, interdependence and emptiness; Daoism and impermanence; dialectics of doubt in art and poetry. Written in a lively and accessible style, accompanied by drawings and photographs by the author, this volume is aimed at scholars, artists, teachers, and anyone interested in philosophy, religion, art, poetry and ways of being."

Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets

Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets PDF Author: Robert G. Chambers
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190063033
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 390

Book Description
For all its elaborate theories and models, economics always reduces to comparisons. Should we build A rather than B? Will I be better off if I eat D rather than C? How much will it cost me to produce F instead of E? At root, the ultimate goal of economics is simple: assessing the alternatives and finding the best possible outcome. This basic mathematical concept underlies all introductions to the field of economics, yet as advanced students progress through the discipline, they often lose track of this foundational idea when presented with real-world complications and uncertainty. In Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets, Robert G. Chambers develops an integrated analytic framework for treating consumer, producer, and market equilibrium analyses as special cases of a generic optimization problem. He builds on lessons learned by all beginning students of economics to show how basic concepts can still be applied even in complex and highly uncertain conditions. Drawing from optimization theory, Chambers demonstrates how the same unified mathematical framework applies to both stochastic and non-stochastic decision settings. The book borrows from both convex and variational analysis and gives special emphasis to differentiability, conjugacy theory, and Fenchel's Duality Theorem. Throughout, Chambers includes practical examples, problems, and exercises to make abstract material accessible. Bringing together essential theoretical tools for understanding decision-making under uncertainty, Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets provides a unified framework for analyzing a broad range of microeconomic decisions. This book will be an invaluable resource for advanced graduate students and scholars of microeconomic theory.

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition

Reasoning about Uncertainty, second edition PDF Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262533804
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 505

Book Description
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Decision Making Under Uncertainty PDF Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262331713
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 350

Book Description
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Ignorance and Uncertainty

Ignorance and Uncertainty PDF Author: Olivier Compte
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108422020
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 303

Book Description
Proposes novel methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling without complex mathematics.

Adaptive Bidding in Single-Sided Auctions under Uncertainty

Adaptive Bidding in Single-Sided Auctions under Uncertainty PDF Author: Clemens van Dinther
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3764381132
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 245

Book Description
This is one of the first books on the use of software agents to simulate bidding behavior in electronic auctions. It introduces market theory and computational economics together, and gives an overview on the most common and up-to-date agent-based simulation methods. The book will help the reader learn more about simulations in economics in general and common agent-based methods and tools in particular.

Uncertainty Modeling

Uncertainty Modeling PDF Author: Vladik Kreinovich
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319510525
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 292

Book Description
This book commemorates the 65th birthday of Dr. Boris Kovalerchuk, and reflects many of the research areas covered by his work. It focuses on data processing under uncertainty, especially fuzzy data processing, when uncertainty comes from the imprecision of expert opinions. The book includes 17 authoritative contributions by leading experts.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers PDF Author: John Kay
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN: 1324004789
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 407

Book Description
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis

Rationalised panics. The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis PDF Author: Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls
Publisher: Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN: 9036101328
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 234

Book Description


Interval / Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics

Interval / Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics PDF Author: Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540776648
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 376

Book Description
This book contains the proceedings of the first International Workshop on Interval/Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non Classical Logics, Ishikawa, Japan, March 25-28, 2008. The workshop brought together researchers working on interval and probabilistic uncertainty and on non-classical logics. It is hoped this workshop will lead to a boost in the much-needed collaboration between the uncertainty analysis and non-classical logic communities, and thus, to better processing of uncertainty.