COVID-19 and the Egyptian Economy: From reopening to recovery: Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors, jobs, and households PDF Download

Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 11

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Book Description
Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.

Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.

Author: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN: 0896293998
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 124

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Book Description
The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?

Author: Mohsen M. Aboulnaga
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030877949
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 363

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Book Description
This book focuses on the socio-economic and sustainability challenges facing megacities in dealing with the dramatic population increases of informal areas and settlements (or slums), especially when coupled with the impacts and risks of climate change. The authors examine informal urban areas globally and in developing countries utilizing strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as a tool to solve the sequence of upgrading steps concerning slums and shanty towns, and also establish essential guidelines for local governments and stakeholders to create a balance and quality of life for slums dwellers, particularly in the age of the COVID-19 pandemic, through applying sustainability indicators that enhance the upgrading process. Coverage includes recent statistics and mapping of informal areas worldwide and assessment of the GIZ and Sir Norman Foster models in terms of energy demands and consequential emission of CO2 and air pollution from slums. Three models of Maspero’s Triangle are also studied and assessed. The book is essential reading for a wide range of researchers, students, policymakers, governments, and professionals as well as a good source for research centers and academicians working in energy, climate change, urban environments, and sustainable urban development.

Author: Raouf, Mariam
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 9

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Book Description
Economic growth in Jordan potentially will come to a halt this year. This comes as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Government imposed an economic lockdown which restricted non-essential economic activities and people’s movement in order to contain the virus. A SAM multiplier model was used to estimate the economic impact of the lockdown and to explore potential recovery pathways for the Jordanian economy. Some of the key findings from this modeling exercise are: • National GDP is estimated to have fallen by 23 percent during the lockdown period. The services sector was hardest hit, seeing an estimated drop in output of almost 30 percent. • Food systems in Jordan are estimated to have experienced a reduction in output by almost 40 percent. • Employment losses during the lockdown were estimated at over 20 percent, mainly driven by job losses in services, followed by agriculture. • Household income fell on average by around one-fifth due to the lockdown, mainly driven by contraction in service sector activities, by slowdown in manufacturing activity, and by lower remittances from abroad. • GDP growth rates for Jordan’s economy will continue to be negative through 2020, ranging from -5.7 to -7.4 percent, depending on the speed of economic recovery. A slow pace of recovery is expected. This economic recovery offers opportunities for fostering sustainable economic transformation and structural change. Economic policies and incentives should be directed towards more economic diversification, greater resilience to withstand economic shocks, and job creation.

Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 6

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Book Description
Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.

Author: Hanāʼ Khayr al-Dīn
Publisher: American Univ in Cairo Press
ISBN: 9789774161544
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 356

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Book Description
This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction, unemployment and job creation, and the new pension system.

Author: Hanaa Kheir-El-Din
Publisher: American University in Cairo Press
ISBN: 1617975257
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 447

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Book Description
The Egyptian economy has undergone several reforms since the early 1990s. However, it was not until recently that the reform process picked up speed and intensity. Key initiatives included shifting to a flexible exchange rate regime, liberalizing trade, revising and reducing the tariff structure, and improving the income tax system. Plans are underway to restructure the financial sector and privatize most state-owned enterprises. This volume aims to evaluate the impact of recent reform policies and highlight priority areas for further reform at the macroeconomic and institutional levels. Topics addressed include growth, distribution, and poverty reduction; monetary policy and the impact of exchange rate liberalization; unemployment and job creation; and the new pension system. The objective is to contribute to ongoing efforts to stimulate growth and employment, ensure fiscal sustainability, improve the external sector, and address issues related to poverty and income distribution. The volume focuses on the health and energy sectors in Egypt, with the aim of assessing each sector in three areas: financing, organization, and policy management, in order to suggest ideas for reform in light of international experience. Contributors: Ragui Assaad, Omneia Helmy, Abdallah Shehata Khattab, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Aart Kraay, Heba El-Laithy, Nihal El-Megharbel, Mai El Mossallamy, Tarek Abdelfattah Moursi, Sarah El Nashar, Tarek Selim, Enas Zakareya.

Author: Aragie, Emerta
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Book Description
In this paper, we analyze the economic impacts of response measures adopted in Ethiopia to curtail the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. We carry out simulations using an economywide multiplier model based on a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the country that properly depicts interactions between economic agents. The pandemic’s impact on the global economy combined with disruptions it causes in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country’s economy. In such situations, a SAM-based multiplier model provides an ideal tool for measuring the short-term direct and indirect impacts of a shock on an economic system since there is limited room for proper adjustment of economic decisions. We model the seven-week partial lockdown policy implemented in Ethiopia from mid-March to early May 2020. We also consider two possible economic recovery scenarios that may emerge as the COVID-19 control policies are relaxed during the latter part of 2020 in order to generate insights on the potential continuing impact of the virus at the end of 2020. Although the country took early swift measures, our assessment of the partial lockdown measures suggests that they were not as strict as those observed in other Africa countries. Accordingly, our estimates of the economic costs of COVID-19 on Ethiopia are significantly lower than those reported for other countries on the continent. We estimate that during the lockdown period Ethiopia’s GDP suffered a 14 percent loss (43.5 billion Birr or 1.9 billion USD) compared to a no-COVID case over the same period. Nearly two-thirds of the losses were in the services sector. Although no direct restrictions were imposed on the agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Ethiopians, the sector faced a 4.7 percent loss in output due to its linkages with the rest of the economy. Poor export performance due to a slowdown in global trade and restrictions on the transport sector also partly explain the decline in agricultural output. The broader agri-food system also was affected considerably because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. In terms of the welfare of Ethiopians, we estimate that the economic impacts during the lockdown caused 10.1 million additional people to fall below the poverty line. These findings have implications for better understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 and for policy design during the recovery period to return Ethiopia’s economy to a normal growth trajectory and to protect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable in the process.

Author: Johannes G. Hoogeveen
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464817774
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 292

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Book Description
COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.