Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures PDF Download

Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262328739
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

Author: Sarah O. Ladislaw
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442228369
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 65

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Book Description
This report evaluates the energy and geopolitical shifts that have arisen from the production of shale gas and light tight oil in the United States. It begins by assessing how much the unconventional energy trend has already impacted energy, geopolitics, and national security. The report then posits several possible energy futures that could emerge from the unconventionals revolution. Finally, it offers views on the major geostrategic question: how will the United States seek to utilize this, so far, domestic resource trend, and given the range of potential future energy outcomes, what might the geopolitical and national security implications be. This report pairs with three background reports, all available from Rowman & Littlefield: New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 1: Energy Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 2: Geopolitical and National Security Impacts New Energy, New Geopolitics: Background Report 3: Scenarios, Strategies, and Pathways

Author: Evan Hillebrand
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262028891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Book Description
Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan

Author: Jean-Pierre Favennec
Publisher: Editions TECHNIP
ISBN: 9782710809708
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 314

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Book Description
Rarely has the world's energy sector known such a complicated and fragile environment as that being experienced in 2011. Energy demand is increasing rapidly because of growth in the developing countries. It is largely met by fossil fuels : oil, natural gas and coal, and also by hydraulic and nuclear power. The use of all these forms of energy now gives rise to controversy. A year after the uncontrollable oil leaks from the Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, the consequences of the accident are still being debated. The development of shale gas, currently the source of half natural gas production in the United States, meets strong opposition in a number of European countries. Even more serious, the accident at Fukushima has put into question the future development of nuclear power, particularly in Europe but also in the USA. There is considerable criticism of the use of coal, which is the source for most of the energy needs in China and a number of developing countries, because of its emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. Even traditional biomass, whose use leads to deforestation and to respiratory diseases, and the development of hydraulic power are the subject of debate. How should one judge between these different energies ? How can decisions be taken between reducing consumption and increasing production ? What is the future for new renewable energies ? These are the issues at stake on the energy sector. This book appears just at the right time to provide clear and well documented replies to the questions that all of us, as energy users, are posing. How are the different forms of energy produced ? What does the future hold for them ? Who are the players active in the energy scene ? What are the supply constraints ? What is the impact of the strong growth in India and China on energy resources ? The book is in two parts. The first sets out the major characteristics of the energy sector. The second provides an analysis of the global energy issues region by region and details the geopolitical aspects. This work is well illustrated and accessible to all, as it does not require any specific prior knowledge. It will particularly interest readers seeking a global perspective of a sector that is fundamental both to our economy and also for our international policies.

Author: Manfred Hafner
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030390667
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 398

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Book Description
The world is currently undergoing an historic energy transition, driven by increasingly stringent decarbonisation policies and rapid advances in low-carbon technologies. The large-scale shift to low-carbon energy is disrupting the global energy system, impacting whole economies, and changing the political dynamics within and between countries. This open access book, written by leading energy scholars, examines the economic and geopolitical implications of the global energy transition, from both regional and thematic perspectives. The first part of the book addresses the geopolitical implications in the world’s main energy-producing and energy-consuming regions, while the second presents in-depth case studies on selected issues, ranging from the geopolitics of renewable energy, to the mineral foundations of the global energy transformation, to governance issues in connection with the changing global energy order. Given its scope, the book will appeal to researchers in energy, climate change and international relations, as well as to professionals working in the energy industry.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Manuel Welsch
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0128099038
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 354

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Book Description
Europe’s Energy Transition: Insights for Policy Making looks at the availability and cost of accessing energy and how it significantly affects economic growth and competitiveness in global markets. The results in this book, from a European Commission (EC) financed project by INSIGHT_E, provide an overview of the most recent analyses, focusing on energy markets and their implications for society. Designed to inform European policymaking, elements of this book will be integrated into upcoming EC policies, giving readers invaluable insights into the cost and availability of energy, the effect of price increases affecting vulnerable consumer groups, and current topics of interest to the EC and ongoing energy debate. INSIGHT_E provides decision-makers with unbiased policy advice and insights on the latest developments, including an assessment of their potential impact. Presents answers to strategic questions posed by the European Commission Coherently assesses the energy transition, from policies to energy supply, markets, system requirements, and consumer needs Informed the EC "Clean Energy for All Europeans" package from end of 2016, e.g., regarding aspects of energy poverty Endorsed by thought leaders from within and outside of Europe, including utilities, energy agencies, research institutes, journal editors, think tanks, and the European Commission

Author: Alexander V. Mirtchev
Publisher: Post Hill Press
ISBN: 1642935549
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319

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Book Description
This is not another alternative energy study. Rather, The Prologue identifies and charts the security-related trajectory of a relatively new global phenomenon: the ascent of alternative energy as a 21st century megatrend. Why and how have contemporary alternative energy developments evolved into a 21st century global socio-political and techno-economic megatrend? What are the security implications of this megatrend? And what does the megatrend’s evolution reveal about upcoming geopolitical, energy, defense, environmental, and economic security challenges? This book endeavors to answer these questions by establishing the conceptual framework of a universally securitized world in which mutually interacting threats have expanded the needs and security considerations of today’s globalized and interdependent actors, including states, international organizations, multinational corporations, and political and social movements. “Alexander Mirtchev’s sweeping exploration of the changing energy landscape looks far into the future and outlines issues that will occupy scholars and policymakers for decades to come.”—The Hon. Henry Kissinger, Chairman, Kissinger Associates, Former Secretary of State and National Security Advisor “With the advancements in alternative energy technology at the beginning of the 21st century, energy security thinking and planning will never be the same—Alexander Mirtchev’s profoundly original book reveals these new dilemmas that will challenge policymakers in all major economies and provides for dealing with the new realities in a smart way.”—The Hon. Judge William H. Webster, Chairman, Homeland Security Advisory Council, Former Director of the CIA and FBI

Author: Joachim Klement
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN: 1952927072
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 230

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Book Description
Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets. To me, geo-economics is the study of how geopolitics and economics interact in international relations. Plenty of books on geopolitics have been written by eminent experts in politics and international affairs. This book is not one of them. First, I am neither a political scientist nor an expert in international affairs. I am an economist and an investment strategist who has been fascinated by geopolitics for many years. And this fascination has led me to the realization that almost all books and articles written on geopolitics are useless for investors. Political scientists are not trained to think like investors, and they are not typically trained in quantitative methods. Instead, they engage in developing narratives for geopolitical events and processes that pose risks and opportunities for investors. My main problem with these narratives is that they usually do not pass the “so what?” test. Geopolitical risks are important, but how am I to assess which risks are important for my portfolio and which ones are simply noise? Because geopolitics experts focus on politics, they do not provide an answer to this crucial question for investors. What could be important for a geopolitics expert and for global politics could be totally irrelevant for investors. For example, the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been going on for almost two decades now and have been an important influence on the political discussion in the United States. But for investors, the war in Afghanistan was a total nonevent, and the war in Iraq had only a fleeting influence, when it started in 2003. Geopolitics experts cannot answer the question of which geopolitical events matter for investors and which do not. Unfortunately, some experts thus claim that all geopolitical risks matter and that these risks cannot be quantified but only assessed qualitatively. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the chapters that follow, I discuss geopolitical and geo-economic events from the viewpoint of an investor and show that they can be quantified and introduced as part of a traditional risk management process. I do this in two parts. The first part of this book focuses on geopolitics that matters to investors. It reviews the literature on a range of geopolitical events and shows which events have a material economic effect and which do not. The second part of this book puts the insights from those first chapters into practice by applying them to current geopolitical trends. In this second part, I stick my head out and examine the impact the geopolitical trends have on the economy and financial markets today and their likely development in the coming years. —Joachim Klement, CFA

Author: Thijs Van de Graaf
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1509530517
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 261

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Book Description
Ever since the Industrial Revolution energy has been a key driver of world politics. From the oil crises of the 1970s to today’s rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, every shift in global energy patterns has important repercussions for international relations. In this new book, Thijs Van de Graaf and Benjamin Sovacool uncover the intricate ways in which our energy systems have shaped global outcomes in four key areas of world politics: security, the economy, the environment and global justice. Moving beyond the narrow geopolitical focus that has dominated much of the discussion on global energy politics, they also deftly trace the connections between energy, environmental politics, and community activism. The authors argue that we are on the cusp of a global energy shift that promises to be no less transformative for the pursuit of wealth and power in world politics than the historical shifts from wood to coal and from coal to oil. This ongoing energy transformation will not only upend the global balance of power; it could also fundamentally transfer political authority away from the nation state, empowering citizens, regions and local communities. Global Energy Politics will be an essential resource for students of the social sciences grappling with the major energy issues of our times.