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Author: Barry B. Hughes Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317259866 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 257
Book Description
"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu
Author: Barry B. Hughes Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317259866 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 257
Book Description
"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu
Author: Barry B Hughes Publisher: Westview Press ISBN: Category : Language Arts & Disciplines Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
Fully updated and including a new and expanded Windows computer simulation, this unique text/disk combination provides a survey of alternative futures in international relations. By manipulating a wide range of variables in major countries and geographical regions students can generate a limitless number of future scenarios in the areas of demographics, food, energy, the environment, economics, and international politics. This new edition of International Futures coherently defines and develops key concepts in global issues and allows interactive development of alternative views of our global future. Complete with tables, flowcharts, feedback loops, computer notes, and research suggestions, the text and simulation allow students to transcend the usual level of speculation about the future by moving to an empirically grounded, values-based consideration of issues, strategies, and outcomes. The broader environmental context of international politics is a special focus of the new edition, just as it has emerged as one of the most important areas in international relations. IFs, a computer simulation to accompany International Futures, is now available in Windows format. It requires the following to operate: an 80386 processor or higher; an EGA, VGA, 8514, Hercules, or compatible display; at least four megabytes of RAM; a hard disk with at least four megabytes of free space; a 3 1/2-inch floppy drive, high density; a mouse; MS-DOS 3.1 or higher; Windows 3.1 or higher in standard or enhanced (not real) mode.
Author: Barry B. Hughes Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0128134224 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 330
Book Description
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Author: Jan Nederveen Pieterse Publisher: Zed Books ISBN: 9781856498029 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
This work looks beyond the problems of accelerating globalization to examine how humanity can shape it. The contributors suggest a variety of perspectives, changes, policies and institutional reforms to strive for in our increasingly inter-connected world.
Author: Nilanjan Raghunath Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP ISBN: 0228010063 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
The widespread belief that tech-savvy, educated millennials are well positioned to handle the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution is unfounded. It does not fully grasp the reality of a flux society, where relevant technological skills and knowledge are continuously changing: no one is permanently tech-savvy. Millennials, like other generations, face the challenge of needing to continually reskill. This has compounded their struggle to begin their careers at a point when there is no longer any guarantee of lifetime employment or retirement at a set age. Shaping the Futures of Work is a timely sociological exploration of the impact of technological innovations on employment. Nilanjan Raghunath proposes that stakeholders such as states, enterprises, and citizens hold equally important roles in ensuring that people can adapt, innovate, and thrive within conditions of flux. A promising model focuses on collaboration and proactive governance. While good governance includes citizen engagement, proactive governance goes one step further, creating inclusive policies, roadmaps, and infrastructure for social and economic progress. This book reveals that lifelong learning and adaptability are imperative, even for well-educated professionals. Using Singapore and Singaporean millennials as a case study, Raghunath examines proactive governance and delivers research and analysis to elucidate career trajectories, pointing to a work ethic that aims to engage with technological futures. Looking at local and global sociological literature to confirm the need for proactive governance, Shaping the Futures of Work suggests that Singaporean millennials – and professionals around the world – need to better prepare themselves for flux, risk, failure, and reinvention for career mobility.
Author: Joy Higgs Publisher: ISBN: 9789004505544 Category : Social justice Languages : en Pages : 446
Book Description
"We are poised at a crossroads between a past that is outgrown and a future we must choose. This book examines the multiple ways that wisdom, grounded in life experience, science and theoretical knowledge, can contribute to positive and sustainable local and global futures. The authors in this book have brought their thinking to various aspects of this existential challenge using the lenses of Wisdom and Wise Practice, in an effort to explore ideas by which society might make choices in planning and acting for a wiser future. Wisdom practices have developed over millennia to assist people in approaching and managing life experiences and difficulties. While such practices were originally considered the purview of academic and religious scholars; at this important time in history, it must become everyone's responsibility to wisely look ahead if we are to achieve a sustainable future for society. The authors of this book comprise international future-oriented leaders, scholars, practitioners, community members and commentators with a commitment to social justice, human service and development. The book explores the place of wisdom and wise living practices alongside other ways of knowing and acting, for shaping positive futures for people and the world we inhabit. The chapters examine major challenges across political, physical and social life worlds, aiming to promote a quantum shift in discourse and decision making to address current and future challenges. The four parts of the book follow forward thinking ideas of wise professional practice: Facing future challenges, Exploring practice pathways, Examining options and Future possibilities"--
Author: Thomas G Weiss Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1000440621 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
Global Governance Futures addresses the crucial importance of thinking through the future of global governance arrangements. It considers the prospects for the governance of world order approaching the middle of the twenty-first century by exploring today’s most pressing and enduring health, social, ecological, economic, and political challenges. Each of the expert contributors considers the drivers of continuity and change within systems of governance and how actors, agents, mechanisms, and resources are and could be mobilized. The aim is not merely to understand state, intergovernmental, and non-state actors. It is also to draw attention to those underappreciated aspects of global governance that push understanding beyond strictures of traditional conceptualizations and offer better insights into the future of world order. The book’s three parts enable readers to appreciate better the sum of forces likely to shape world order in the near and not-so-near future: “Planetary” encompasses changes wrought by continuing human domination of the earth; war; current and future geopolitical, civilizational, and regional contestations; and life in and between urban and non-urban environments. “Divides” includes threats to human rights gains; the plight of migrants; those who have and those who do not; persistent racial, gender, religious, and sexualorientation-based discrimination; and those who govern and those who are governed. “Challenges” involves food and health insecurities; ongoing environmental degradation and species loss; the current and future politics of international assistance and data; and the wrong turns taken in the control of illicit drugs and crime. Designed to engage advanced undergraduate and graduate students in international relations, organization, law, and political economy as well as a general audience, this book invites readers to adopt both a backward- and forward-looking view of global governance. It will spark discussion and debate as to how dystopic futures might be avoided and change agents mobilized.
Author: Juanita Brown Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers ISBN: 1605092517 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 265
Book Description
The World Cafe is a flexible, easy-to-use process for fostering collaborative dialogue, sharing mutual knowledge, and discovering new opportunities for action. Based on living systems thinking, this innovative approach creates dynamic networks of conversation that can catalyze an organization or community's own collective intelligence around its most important questions. Filled with stories of actual Cafe dialogues in business, education, government, and community organizations across the globe, this uniquely crafted book demonstrates how the World Cafe can be adapted to any setting or culture. Examples from such varied organizations as Hewlett-Packard, American Society for Quality, the nation of Singapore, the University of Texas, and many others, demonstrate the process in action. Along with its seven core design principles, The World Cafe offers practical tips for hosting "conversations that matter" in groups of any size- strengthening both personal relationships and people's capacity to shape the future together.
Author: Evan Hillebrand Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262328739 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 245
Book Description
Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Author: Barry Hughes
Author: Barry B Hughes
Author: Barry B. Hughes
Author: Jan Nederveen Pieterse
Author: Nilanjan Raghunath
Author: Joy Higgs
Author: Thomas G Weiss
Author: Juanita Brown
Author: Evan Hillebrand