IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term PDF full book. Access full book title IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term by Mr. Christian Mumssen. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr. Christian Mumssen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484359437 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Author: Mr. Christian Mumssen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484359437 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589062744 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 128
Book Description
Using a cross-country sample of 169 IMF-supported programs and detailed studies of 15 programs, this evaluation report examines various aspects of fiscal adjustment in IMF-supported programs. It presents evidence that does not support some critics’ view that IMF-supported programs typically adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal adjustment, nor the perception that programs always involve austerity by targeting reductions in public spending. The report also proposes a number of recommendations for IMF surveillance and program design in the future.
Author: Mr.Ashoka Mody Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781589063617 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.
Author: Tejesh Pradhan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484386140 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Continuing the empirical debate on the effects of IMF-supported programs on participating countries’ macroeconomic performance, we focus on the issue of whether these programs accelerate conditional ß-convergence among low-income countries (LICs). We use an unbalanced panel dataset for 85 LICs over the period 1986-2015 and employ two different econometric methods to address the selection bias problem. Our empirical results suggest that the rate of conditional income per capita convergence is faster among LICs with extended IMF support than that in countries without support or with intermittent support.
Author: Martin Iseringhausen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513520040 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Author: Atish R. Ghosh Publisher: IMF ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 164
Book Description
This publication contains a collection of papers which examine the design of IMF-supported programmes during the years 1995-2000 in both middle-income and low-income countries. The analysis covers objectives and outcomes, policy formulation and programme design, and experiences in relation to macroeconomic and structural policies.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451858310 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Over the last two decades a number of cross-country empirical studies have been undertaken to assess whether IMF-supported adjustment programs have led to an improved balance of payments and current account balance, lower inflation, and higher growth. These studies use a variety of methodologies and cover different country samples and time periods. This paper critically surveys the evidence yielded by the cross-country studies, paying special attention to the pros and cons of the respective empirical methodologies employed. These studies, particularly the more recent ones, conclude that IMF-supported programs have generally been successful in stabilizing the economy.
Author: Mr.Masahiro Nozaki Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463935145 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 20
Book Description
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513560883 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 67
Book Description
This paper evaluates the IMF’s policy on the use of quantitative limits on public debt in IMF-supported programs (the “debt limits policy”) and proposes a number of modifications. The review is taking place at a time when many countries are experiencing heightened debt vulnerabilities or actual debt distress, aggravated by the COVID-19 shock, and occurring against the backdrop of a changing credit landscape in which concessional finance is scarcer relative to countries’ investment needs.
Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484394712 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.
Author: Mr. Christian Mumssen
Author: Mr. Christian Mumssen
Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Author: Mr.Ashoka Mody
Author: Tejesh Pradhan
Author: Martin Iseringhausen
Author: Atish R. Ghosh
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr.Masahiro Nozaki
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Author: Yasemin Bal-Gunduz