OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY. PDF Download

Author: RICHARD T. FROYEN
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781784717346
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1847208649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 341

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Book Description
Froyen and Guender have provided a thorough and careful analysis of optimal monetary policy over most of the range of theoretical models that have been used in modern macroeconomics. By providing a comprehensive and clear comparative framework they will help the student of monetary policy understand why there have been conflicting views of what policy makers should do. Central Banking In Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, academicians and economists Richard T. Froyen and Alfred V. Guender have collaborated on presenting an informed and informative survey of optimal monetary policy literature arising during the 1970s and 1980s as a ground work for understanding current market and other economic influences on such germane issues as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, and the delegation of policy making authority within the private and public sectors. With meticulous attention to scholarship and objectivity. . . Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty is a thoughtful and thought-provoking body of work that is very strongly recommended for professional, academic, corporate and governmental economic reference collections and supplemental reading lists. Midwest Book Review Recently there has been a resurgence of interest in the study of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty. This book provides a thorough survey of the literature that has resulted from this renewed interest. The authors ground recent contributions on the science of monetary policy in the literature of the 1970s, which viewed optimal monetary policy as primarily a question of the best use of information, and studies in the 1980s that gave primacy to time inconsistency problems. This broad focus leads to a better understanding of current issues such as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, and the merits of delegation of policy authority. Casting a wide net, the authors survey the recent literature on the New Keynesian approach to optimal monetary policy in the context of the earlier literature. They emphasize the relationship between policy decisions and the information set available to the policymaker, a central focus of the earlier literature, obscured in much recent work. Optimal policy questions are considered in open as well as closed economy models and the often confusing terminology in the literature is sorted and clarified. Questions are considered within easily analysed models and the authors clearly show why these models lead to different (or equivalent) policy conclusions. Recent policy issues such as desirability of inflation targeting and the relative merits of target versus instrument rules are covered in detail. Economists in academia and in policymaking organizations who want to learn about recent developments in the area of optimal monetary policy, as well as graduate and advanced undergraduate students in macroeconomic and monetary economics, will find this volume a clear and thorough examination of the topic.

Author: Richard T. Froyen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1784717193
Category : Mathematical optimization
Languages : en
Pages : 466

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This book provides a thorough survey of the model-based literature on optimal monetary in a stochastic setting. The survey begins with the literature of the 1970s which focused on the information problem in policy design and extends to the New Keynesian approach of the 1990s which centered on evaluating alternative targeting strategies. New to the second edition is consideration of research since the world financial crisis on the role of financial markets and institutions in the conduct of monetary policy.

Author: Rossen Rozenov
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475521790
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables with known probability distributions, it is only assumed that they belong to some pre-specified compact set. Such an approach is appropriate when the decision maker does not have enough information to form probabilistic beliefs or when considerations for robustness are important. Solution of the model in the minimax sense when disturbance sets are ellipsoids is obtained and the application of the method is illustrated using the example of Portugal.

Author: Oliver Sauter
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 365804974X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 221

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Oliver Sauter analyzes three aspects of monetary policy under uncertainty. First he shows that the terms risk and uncertainty are often wrongly used as synonyms despite their different meanings. The second aspect is the proper examination and incorporation of uncertainty into a monetary policy framework. The author undertakes systematization with a closer look at each identified form of uncertainty. Thirdly, he focuses on the quantification of uncertainty from two different perspectives, either from a market perspective or from a central bank perspective.

Author: Takeshi Kimura
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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In this paper, we structurally model uncertainty with a micro-founded model, and investigate its implications for optimal monetary policy. Uncertainty about deep parameters of the model implies that the central bank simultaneously faces both uncertainty about the structural dynamic equations and about the social loss function. Considering both uncertainties with cross-parameter restrictions based on the micro-foundations of the model, we use Bayesian methods to determine the optimal monetary policy that minimizes the expected loss. Our analysis shows how uncertainty can lead the central bank to pursue a more aggressive monetary policy, overturning Brainard's common wisdom. As the degree of uncertainty about inflation dynamics increases, the central bank should place much more weight on price stability, and should respond to shocks more aggressively. In addition, when the central bank is uncertain about output dynamics, an aggressive policy response can be justified by the positive correlation between policy multiplier and transmission of natural rate of interest shock as well as the effect of loss-function uncertainty. We also show that combining a more aggressive policy response with a highly inertial interest rate policy reduces Bayesian risk.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451851944
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12

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We provide a framework for analyzing the choice between optimal and robust monetary policy rules in the presence of paradigm uncertainty. We first discuss the conditions on uncertainty that render a robust rule preferable to an optimal rule. Second, we show how the degree of risk aversion of the policymaker increases the region in which the robust rule is preferred.

Author: Kenneth S. Rogoff
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262572346
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 479

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The 20th NBER Macroeconomics Annual, covering questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates.

Author: Giorgio Consigli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319416138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 298

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Book Description
The scope of this volume is primarily to analyze from different methodological perspectives similar valuation and optimization problems arising in financial applications, aimed at facilitating a theoretical and computational integration between methods largely regarded as alternatives. Increasingly in recent years, financial management problems such as strategic asset allocation, asset-liability management, as well as asset pricing problems, have been presented in the literature adopting formulation and solution approaches rooted in stochastic programming, robust optimization, stochastic dynamic programming (including approximate SDP) methods, as well as policy rule optimization, heuristic approaches and others. The aim of the volume is to facilitate the comprehension of the modeling and methodological potentials of those methods, thus their common assumptions and peculiarities, relying on similar financial problems. The volume will address different valuation problems common in finance related to: asset pricing, optimal portfolio management, risk measurement, risk control and asset-liability management. The volume features chapters of theoretical and practical relevance clarifying recent advances in the associated applied field from different standpoints, relying on similar valuation problems and, as mentioned, facilitating a mutual and beneficial methodological and theoretical knowledge transfer. The distinctive aspects of the volume can be summarized as follows: Strong benchmarking philosophy, with contributors explicitly asked to underline current limits and desirable developments in their areas. Theoretical contributions, aimed at advancing the state-of-the-art in the given domain with a clear potential for applications The inclusion of an algorithmic-computational discussion of issues arising on similar valuation problems across different methods. Variety of applications: rarely is it possible within a single volume to consider and analyze different, and possibly competing, alternative optimization techniques applied to well-identified financial valuation problems. Clear definition of the current state-of-the-art in each methodological and applied area to facilitate future research directions.

Author: George Alogoskoufis
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262043017
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 801

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An advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic equilibrium models, with discussion of the implications for monetary and fiscal policy. This textbook offers an advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic general equilibrium models based on intertemporal optimization on the part of economic agents. The book treats macroeconomics as applied and policy-oriented general equilibrium analysis, examining a number of models, each of which is suitable for investigating specific issues but may be unsuitable for others. After presenting a brief survey of the evolution of macroeconomics and the key facts about long-run economic growth and aggregate fluctuations, the book introduces the main elements of the intertemporal approach through a series of two-period competitive general equilibrium models—the simplest possible intertemporal models. This sets the stage for the remainder of the book, which presents models of economic growth, aggregate fluctuations, and monetary and fiscal policy. The text focuses on a full analysis of a limited number of key intertemporal models, which are stripped down to essentials so that students can focus on the dynamic properties of the models. Exercises encourage students to try their hands at solving versions of the dynamic models that define modern macroeconomics. Appendixes review the main mathematical techniques needed to analyze optimizing dynamic macroeconomic models. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who have some knowledge of economic theory and mathematics for economists.