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Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484325443 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves differs from the measures often used by practitioners. Second, under plausible calibrations the model is consistent with the rule of thumb that reserves should be close to three months of imports. Third, simple linear rules can capture most of the welfare gains from optimal reserve management. Fourth, policymakers should place more emphasis on how to use reserves in response to shocks than on the reserve target itself.
Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484325443 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Financially closed economies insure themselves against current-account shocks using international reserves. We characterize the optimal management of reserves using an open-economy model of precautionary savings and emphasize several results. First, the welfare-based opportunity cost of reserves differs from the measures often used by practitioners. Second, under plausible calibrations the model is consistent with the rule of thumb that reserves should be close to three months of imports. Third, simple linear rules can capture most of the welfare gains from optimal reserve management. Fourth, policymakers should place more emphasis on how to use reserves in response to shocks than on the reserve target itself.
Author: Romain Ranciere Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
We present a model of the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy that is vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Reserves allow the country to smooth domestic absorption in response to sudden stops, but yield a lower return than the interest rate on the country's long-term debt. We derive a formula for the optimal level of reserves, and show that plausible calibrations can explain reserves of the order of magnitude observed in many emerging market countries. However, the recent buildup of reserves in Asia seems in excess of what would be implied by an insurance motive against sudden stops.
Author: Mr.Jaewoo Lee Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451862172 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
This paper compares the importance of precautionary and mercantilist motives in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. Overall, empirical results support precautionary motives; in particular, a more liberal capital account regime increases international reserves. Theoretically, large precautionary demand for international reserves arises as a self-insurance to avoid costly liquidation of long-term projects when the economy is susceptible to sudden stops. The welfare gain from the optimal management of international reserves is of a first-order magnitude, reducing the welfare cost of liquidity shocks from a first-order to a second-order magnitude.
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463923287 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498345646 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
Author: Robert P. Flood Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
Why do countries hold so much international reserves? Global reserve holdings (excluding gold) were equivalent to 17 weeks of imports at the end of 1999. That is almost double what they were at the end of 1960 and about 20 percent higher than they were at the start of the 1990s. In this paper we study countries’ reserve holdings in light of both the increased financial volatility experienced in the last decade and diminished adherence to fixed exchange rates. We find that buffer-stock reserve models work about as well in the modern floating-rate period as they did during the Bretton Woods regime. During both periods, however, the models’ fundamentals explain only a small portion (10-15 percent) of reserves volatility.
Author: Guillermo Calvo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper addresses the issue of the optimal stock of international reserves in terms of a statistical model in which reserves affect both the probability of a Sudden Stop-as well as associated output costs-by reducing the balance-sheet effects of liability dollarization. Optimal reserves are derived under the assumption that central bankers conservatively choose reserves by balancing the expected cost of a Sudden Stop against the opportunity cost of holding reserves. Results are obtained without using calibration to match observed reserves levels, providing no a priori reason for our concept of optimal reserves to be in line with observed holdings. Remarkably, however, observed reserves on the eve of the global financial crisis were-on average-not distant from optimal reserves as derived in this model, indicating that reserve over-accumulation in Emerging Markets was not obvious. However, heterogeneity prevailed across regions: from a precautionary standpoint, Latin America was closest to model-based optimal levels, while reserves in Eastern Europe lay below optimal levels, and those in Asia lay above. Nonetheless, there are other motives for reserve accumulation: we find that differences between observed reserves and precautionary-motive optimal reserves are partly explained by the perceived presence of a lender of last resort, or characteristics such as being a large oil producer. However, to a first approximation, there is no clear evidence supporting the so-called neo-mercantilist motive for reserve accumulation.
Author: Anne Y. Kester Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 86
Book Description
International financial crises in the late 1990s revealed that deficiencies in countrieѕђة́ international reserves and related information made it difficult to anticipate and respond to crises by obscuring financial weaknesses and imbalances. This volume sets forth an innovative framework to assess countrieѕђة́ international reserves and foreign currency liquidity. The framework takes account of official balance sheet and off-balance-sheet financial activities, future and potential demand for foreign exchange to meet official obligations, the availability of official foreign currency assets to meet such demand, and official risk exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. This work clarifies what international reserves are, and how international reserves and related information should be strengthened to promote informed decision making in the public and private sectors, thereby helping improve the functioning of global financial markets.
Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne
Author: Mr.Olivier Jeanne
Author: Romain Ranciere
Author: Olivier Jeanne
Author: Mr.Jaewoo Lee
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Author: Robert P. Flood
Author: M. June Flanders
Author: Guillermo Calvo
Author: Anne Y. Kester