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Military Deception and Strategic Surprise

Military Deception and Strategic Surprise PDF Author: John Gooch
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 0714632023
Category : Ambushes and surprises
Languages : en
Pages : 206

Book Description
First Published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Military Deception and Strategic Surprise

Military Deception and Strategic Surprise PDF Author: John Gooch
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 0714632023
Category : Ambushes and surprises
Languages : en
Pages : 206

Book Description
First Published in 2004. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.

Intelligence and Strategic Surprises

Intelligence and Strategic Surprises PDF Author: Ariel Levite
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 9780231063746
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 252

Book Description


Managing Strategic Surprise

Managing Strategic Surprise PDF Author: Paul Bracken
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521709606
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 336

Book Description
The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Surprise Attack

Surprise Attack PDF Author: Richard K. Betts
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815719477
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 333

Book Description
Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.

Surprise Attack

Surprise Attack PDF Author: Ephraim KAM
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674039297
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 295

Book Description
Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny. --Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Anticipating Surprise

Anticipating Surprise PDF Author: Cynthia M. Grabo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deception
Languages : en
Pages : 192

Book Description


Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts

Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts PDF Author: Mark F. Cancian
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1442280727
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 151

Book Description
Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.

Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Intelligence and Surprise Attack PDF Author: Erik J. Dahl
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
ISBN: 1589019989
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 289

Book Description
How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

Surprise, Security, and the American Experience

Surprise, Security, and the American Experience PDF Author: John Lewis Gaddis
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674018365
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 164

Book Description
In this provocative book, a distinguished Cold War historian argues that September 11, 2001, was not the first time a surprise attack shattered American assumptions about national security and reshaped American grand strategy.

Inflicting Surprise

Inflicting Surprise PDF Author: Mark F. Cancian
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1538140284
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 126

Book Description
Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS’s highly successful 2018 study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report highlights several components of a successful surprise, including exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes illustrating potential future surprises.