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Author: Jean-Jacques Laffont Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262121361 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics.
Author: Jean-Jacques Laffont Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262121361 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics.
Author: Paul Andre Harris Publisher: BRILL ISBN: 9004138110 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 278
Book Description
The essays in this volume all originated at the 2001 conference of the International Society for the Study of Time. The theme 'Time and Uncertainty' sounds redundant, but the contributions try to come to terms with the irreducible openness of time and the impermanence of life. The essays from various disciplines have been grouped around 'fracture and rupture' (grappling with time and uncertainty as a breach) and 'rapture and structure (solving uncertainty into pattern).
Author: Ivo D. Dinov Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG ISBN: 3110697823 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 489
Book Description
The amount of new information is constantly increasing, faster than our ability to fully interpret and utilize it to improve human experiences. Addressing this asymmetry requires novel and revolutionary scientific methods and effective human and artificial intelligence interfaces. By lifting the concept of time from a positive real number to a 2D complex time (kime), this book uncovers a connection between artificial intelligence (AI), data science, and quantum mechanics. It proposes a new mathematical foundation for data science based on raising the 4D spacetime to a higher dimension where longitudinal data (e.g., time-series) are represented as manifolds (e.g., kime-surfaces). This new framework enables the development of innovative data science analytical methods for model-based and model-free scientific inference, derived computed phenotyping, and statistical forecasting. The book provides a transdisciplinary bridge and a pragmatic mechanism to translate quantum mechanical principles, such as particles and wavefunctions, into data science concepts, such as datum and inference-functions. It includes many open mathematical problems that still need to be solved, technological challenges that need to be tackled, and computational statistics algorithms that have to be fully developed and validated. Spacekime analytics provide mechanisms to effectively handle, process, and interpret large, heterogeneous, and continuously-tracked digital information from multiple sources. The authors propose computational methods, probability model-based techniques, and analytical strategies to estimate, approximate, or simulate the complex time phases (kime directions). This allows transforming time-varying data, such as time-series observations, into higher-dimensional manifolds representing complex-valued and kime-indexed surfaces (kime-surfaces). The book includes many illustrations of model-based and model-free spacekime analytic techniques applied to economic forecasting, identification of functional brain activation, and high-dimensional cohort phenotyping. Specific case-study examples include unsupervised clustering using the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI), model-based inference using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, and model-free inference using the UK Biobank data archive. The material includes mathematical, inferential, computational, and philosophical topics such as Heisenberg uncertainty principle and alternative approaches to large sample theory, where a few spacetime observations can be amplified by a series of derived, estimated, or simulated kime-phases. The authors extend Newton-Leibniz calculus of integration and differentiation to the spacekime manifold and discuss possible solutions to some of the "problems of time". The coverage also includes 5D spacekime formulations of classical 4D spacetime mathematical equations describing natural laws of physics, as well as, statistical articulation of spacekime analytics in a Bayesian inference framework. The steady increase of the volume and complexity of observed and recorded digital information drives the urgent need to develop novel data analytical strategies. Spacekime analytics represents one new data-analytic approach, which provides a mechanism to understand compound phenomena that are observed as multiplex longitudinal processes and computationally tracked by proxy measures. This book may be of interest to academic scholars, graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, artificial intelligence and machine learning engineers, biostatisticians, econometricians, and data analysts. Some of the material may also resonate with philosophers, futurists, astrophysicists, space industry technicians, biomedical researchers, health practitioners, and the general public.
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9781138115095 Category : Languages : en Pages : 538
Book Description
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Author: David M. Edelstein Publisher: Cornell University Press ISBN: 150171208X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 262
Book Description
How do established powers react to growing competitors? The United States currently faces a dilemma with regard to China and others over whether to embrace competition and thus substantial present-day costs or collaborate with its rivals to garner short-term gains while letting them become more powerful. This problem lends considerable urgency to the lessons to be learned from Over the Horizon. David M. Edelstein analyzes past rising powers in his search for answers that point the way forward for the United States as it strives to maintain control over its competitors. Edelstein focuses on the time horizons of political leaders and the effects of long-term uncertainty on decision-making. He notes how state leaders tend to procrastinate when dealing with long-term threats, hoping instead to profit from short-term cooperation, and are reluctant to act precipitously in an uncertain environment. To test his novel theory, Edelstein uses lessons learned from history’s great powers: late nineteenth-century Germany, the United States at the turn of the twentieth century, interwar Germany, and the Soviet Union at the origins of the Cold War. Over the Horizon demonstrates that cooperation between declining and rising powers is more common than we might think, although declining states may later regret having given upstarts time to mature into true threats.
Author: Sushil Bikhchandani Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521834082 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 509
Book Description
This second edition, with a greater focus on game theory, attempts to unify recent developments in economic theories of uncertainty and information for students.
Author: Michel Syrett Publisher: The Economist ISBN: 1610395131 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 170
Book Description
Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. • Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business • Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty • Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Author: Francois Trahan Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118134095 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Author: Jean-Jacques Laffont
Author: Jean-Jacques Laffont
Author: Jack Hirshleifer
Author: Paul Andre Harris
Author: Ivo D. Dinov
Author: Efstratios Nikolaidis
Author: Donald W. Katzner
Author: David M. Edelstein
Author: Sushil Bikhchandani
Author: Michel Syrett
Author: Francois Trahan