Stock Market Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Fundamentals PDF Download

Author: Mr.Lamin Leigh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451843224
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42

View

Book Description
This paper examines the efficiency of the Stock Exchange of Singapore and the relationship between the stock market and the overall economy. Using a wide range of methods for testing market efficiency, the paper establishes that the Singapore stock market is both “weakly” and “semi-strongly” efficient in asset-pricing terms but not “strongly” efficient. Granger causality tests based on the efficiency test results indicate that developments in the stock market appear to be systematically related to the overall economy in Singapore and can thus serve as a leading indicator of its intertemporal behavior.

Author: Mr.Charles Frederick Kramer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451951981
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

View

Book Description
Can fundamentals account for the recent performance of the U.S. stock market? The price/earnings ratio is out of line with historical averages, and the dividend/price ratio has recently reached a historic low. These developments and record levels of inflows into mutual funds have led some to conclude that stock prices are above their fundamental levels. This paper assesses the recent rise in the stock market using a model for the equilibrium dividend/price ratio. While economic variables can account for most of the recent fall in the dividend/price ratio, mutual-fund inflows still have some marginal explanatory power.

Author: Mr.Paul R. Masson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451857977
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

View

Book Description
The paper surveys the types of models producing multiple equilibria in financial markets. It argues that such models are consistent with observed phenomena, such as the greater volatility of financial asset prices than of macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternative explanations are compared with the stylized facts concerning capital flows, portfolio shifts, and exchange rate crises. Implications for crisis prediction and prevention are then discussed.

Author: Andrew Smithers
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 9780071387835
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374

View

Book Description
Valuing Wall Street is a book on investments.

Author: Charles Lee
Publisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601988928
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212

View

Book Description
Alphanomics: The Informational Underpinnings of Market Efficiency is intended to be a compact introduction to academic research on market efficiency, behavioral finance, and fundamental analysis and is dedicated to the kind of decision-driven and prospectively-focused research that is much needed in a market constantly seeking to become more efficient. The authors refer to this type of research as Alphanomics, the informational economics behind market efficiency. Alpha refers to the abnormal returns, which provide the incentive for some subpopulation of investors to engage in information acquisition and costly arbitrage activities. Nomics refers to the economics of alpha extraction, which encompasses the costs and incentives of informational arbitrage as a sustainable business proposition. Some of the questions that are addressed include: why do we believe markets are efficient?; what problems have this belief engendered?; what factors can impede and/or facilitate market efficiency?; what roles do investor sentiment and costly arbitrage play in determining an equilibrium level of informational efficiency?; what is the essence of value investing?; how is it related to fundamental analysis (the study of historical financial data)?; and how might we distinguish between risk and mispricing based explanations for predictability patterns in returns? The first two sections review the evolution of academic thinking on market efficiency and introduce the noise trader model as a rational alternative. Section 3 surveys the literature on investor sentiment and its role as a source of both risks and returns. Section 4 discusses the role of fundamental analysis in value investing. Section 5 reviews the literature on limits to arbitrage, and section 6 discusses research methodology issues associated with the need to distinguish mispricing from risk.

Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262522717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 398

View

Book Description
The goals of the annual NBER Macroeconomics Conference are to present, extend, and apply frontier work in macroeconomics and to stimulate work by macroeconomists in policy issues. Each paper in the Annual is followed by comments and discussion. The goals of the annual NBER Macroeconomics Conference are to present, extend, and apply frontier work in macroeconomics and to stimulate work by macroeconomists in policy issues. Each paper in the Annual is followed by comments and discussion.

Author: Md Abu Hasan
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527569780
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223

View

Book Description
This book contributes to empirical finance by comprehensively analysing an emerging stock market, employing modern econometric techniques. The most central and fascinating area of financial economics is probably the efficiency and volatility of the stock market – however, studies of emerging economies are relatively limited in this area. The rising importance of stock market globalisation has increased interest in emerging markets. This book leads the way for an emerging market perspective, as it explores the issue of efficiency and volatility of the stock market in Bangladesh by employing both univariate and multivariate models, using daily data of past share prices and monthly data of macroeconomic variables and the stock index, respectively. This book offers an understanding of the crucial issues facing developing economies, particularly emerging stock markets with similar characteristics to those of Bangladesh. This book undoubtedly provides valuable information for investors in the stock market, graduate, post-graduate, and PhD students in quantitative financial economics, academics in economics and finance, and policymakers in developing economies.

Author: Ambar Nath Ghosh
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 8132216504
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 538

View

Book Description
The book’s 30 chapters are divided into three sections – international trade, economic development, macroeconomics and finance – and focus on the frontier issues in each. Section I addresses analytical issues relating to trade-environment linkage, capital accumulation for pollution abatement, possibility of technology diffusion by multinational corporations, nature of innovation inducing tariff protection, effects of import restriction and child labour, the links between exchange rate, direction of trade and financial crisis—the implications for India and global economic crisis, financial institutions and global capital flows and balance of payments imbalances. Section II consists of discussions on the causes of widespread poverty persisting in South Asia, development dividend associated with peace in South Asia, issues of well-being and human development, implications for endogenous growth through human capital accumulation on environmental quality and taxation, the rationale for a labour supply schedule for the poor, switching as an investment strategy, the role of government and strategic interaction in the presence of information asymmetry, government’s role in controlling food inflation, inter-state variations in levels and growth of industry in India, structural breaks in India’s service sector development, and the phenomenon of wasted votes in India’s parliamentary elections. Section III deals with the effectiveness of monetary policy in tackling economic crisis, the effective demand model of corporate leverages and recession, the empirical link between stock market development and economic growth in cross-country experience in Asia, an empirical verification of the Mckinnon-Shaw hypothesis for financial development in India, the dynamics of the behaviour of the Indian stock market, efficiency of non-life insurance companies, econometric study of the causal linkage between FDI and current account balance in India and the implications of contagious crises for the Indian economy.

Author: Sumit Kumar Maji
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811926662
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 186

View

Book Description
The book outlines the importance of Indian manufacturing sector and its growth under alternative policy regimes. The authors highlight the significance of various firm-specific and macroeconomic factors on the level of efficiency and profitability of the firms operating in the diverse manufacturing sector during the post-liberalization era. The book also examines the dynamic relationship between the select manufacturing sector-specific stock market indices and the various macroeconomic variables.

Author: Didier Sornette
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400885094
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 448

View

Book Description
The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.