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Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: OUP USA ISBN: 9780195057669 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy. One reason is a lack of understanding of how a nuclear war might come about or how one could be prevented; much of what is offered as expert knowledge cannot be defended as more than educated opinion. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War assesses current knowledge to create a basis for new intellectual approaches to the subject of international security that are conceptually rigorous, theoretically eclectic, and methodologically self-conscious. Leading scholars review specific behavioral and social phenomena and processes that may be critical in determining war and peace, including the behavior of decision makers during crises, the pressure of public opinion, the causes of war among great powers, and the processes of international security negotiation. This work was sponsored by the Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: OUP USA ISBN: 9780195057669 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
All people wish to avoid nuclear war, but this fact provides little guidance for policy. One reason is a lack of understanding of how a nuclear war might come about or how one could be prevented; much of what is offered as expert knowledge cannot be defended as more than educated opinion. Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War assesses current knowledge to create a basis for new intellectual approaches to the subject of international security that are conceptually rigorous, theoretically eclectic, and methodologically self-conscious. Leading scholars review specific behavioral and social phenomena and processes that may be critical in determining war and peace, including the behavior of decision makers during crises, the pressure of public opinion, the causes of war among great powers, and the processes of international security negotiation. This work was sponsored by the Committee on Contributions of Behavioral and Social Science to the Prevention of Nuclear War, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA ISBN: 9780195057676 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 367
Book Description
In the last year the world has witnessed changes in East-West relations that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago. The Berlin Wall has crumbled, Eastern Europe has thrown out its authoritarian leaders, and the Soviet Union itself has undergone dramatic changes in political structure and foreign policy. The U.S. public no longer regards the Eastern Bloc as the principal threat to national security. Yet even with the undeniable thaw in the Cold War many of the old scenarios for "World War III" remain as plausible as they were in the past, and new sources of instability could arise from ethnic conflicts, economic competition, or other sources. The second volume of Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War addresses the potential causes of nuclear war within the context of this changing political landscape. As in the first volume of this series, leading scholars review specific behavioral and social phenomena and processes that may be critical in determining war and peace--how foreign policy decision are made, the role of arms races, and the activities of third-party moderators. Volume Two also explores the effects of changing international conditions on the potential for the growing importance of conflicts between small powers, the possibility that techniques of reassurance can supplement deterrence, and the sources of moderation in Soviet security policy. Informed by the most up-to-date scholarship, Behavior, Society, and Nuclear War will be essential reading for anyone interested in international relations, disarmament, political science, and sociology.
Author: Anne I. Harrington Publisher: University of Georgia Press ISBN: 082035564X Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 231
Book Description
Recent discoveries in psychology and neuroscience have improved our understanding of why our decision making processes fail to match standard social science assumptions about rationality. As researchers such as Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Richard Thaler have shown, people often depart in systematic ways from the predictions of the rational actor model of classic economic thought because of the influence of emotions, cognitive biases, an aversion to loss, and other strong motivations and values. These findings about the limits of rationality have formed the basis of behavioral economics, an approach that has attracted enormous attention in recent years. This collection of essays applies the insights of behavioral economics to the study of nuclear weapons policy. Behavioral economics gives us a more accurate picture of how people think and, as a consequence, of how they make decisions about whether to acquire or use nuclear arms. Such decisions are made in real-world circumstances in which rational calculations about cost and benefit are intertwined with complicated emotions and subject to human limitations. Strategies for pursuing nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation should therefore, argue the contributors, account for these dynamics in a systematic way. The contributors to this collection examine how a behavioral approach might inform our understanding of topics such as deterrence, economic sanctions, the nuclear nonproliferation regime, and U.S. domestic debates about ballistic missile defense. The essays also take note of the limitations of a behavioral approach for dealing with situations in which even a single deviation from the predictions of any model can have dire consequences.
Author: Fred Solomon Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 9780309078665 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 609
Book Description
Written by world-renowned scientists, this volume portrays the possible direct and indirect devastation of human health from a nuclear attack. The most comprehensive work yet produced on this subject, The Medical Implications of Nuclear War includes an overview of the potential environmental and physical effects of nuclear bombardment, describes the problems of choosing who among the injured would get the scarce medical care available, addresses the nuclear arms race from a psychosocial perspective, and reviews the medical needs--in contrast to the medical resources likely to be available--after a nuclear attack. "It should serve as the definitive statement on the consequences of nuclear war."--Arms Control Today
Author: James P. Kahan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Decision making Languages : en Pages : 116
Book Description
"This Note addresses one of the most crucial issues of our time, prevention of nuclear war, from the perspective of the behavioral sciences. The Note contends that the direct applicability of empirically derived behavioral principles to international policymaking has yet to be proved. A great body of research dealing directly with human behavior lies at the core of the behavioral sciences. Findings from this research should be able to contribute to the understanding of critical human decisions, intentions, and actions that could help prevent, as well as give rise to, nuclear war. Moving beyond questions of the immediate applicability of the behavioral sciences to such critical issues, this Note explores some potential contributions that evidence from the behavioral sciences could make in the future. A scenario is presented that posits an escalation of tension between the Soviet Union and the United States that culminates in a strategic nuclear exchange. A specific intervention using behaviorally based principles is then added to the scenario and explained."--Rand abstracts.
Author: James A. Thompson Publisher: ISBN: Category : History Languages : en Pages : 148
Book Description
Exploring the nature of nuclear war, this psychological treatise examines human reactions to nuclear disaster and accidental explosions. The discusssion is based on evidence of human fallibility that has emerged from the psychology of accidents and from research into decision-making in military and political contexts. Draws on the psychology of negotiation and conflict resolution to suggest ways in which the threat of nuclear war might be reduced.
Author: Richard N. Rosecrance Publisher: Cornell University Press ISBN: 9780801481161 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 252
Book Description
This book explores the idea of grand strategy and offers a full-blown critique--both theoretical and empirical--of the gaps and inconsistencies that weaken modern realist theory. Grand strategy, the authors maintain, is determined as much by domestic politics as by international pressures.
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: 
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Author: Anne I. Harrington
Author: Milton Schwebel
Author: Fred Solomon
Author: James P. Kahan
Author: James A. Thompson
Author: Richard N. Rosecrance