The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters Under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach PDF Download

Author: Emilio Fernández Corugedo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 49

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Book Description
This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets, financial frictions with collateral constraints, foreign remittances, full menu of tax and government spending instruments, and endogenous climate risk premium. The model is calibrated to the case of Dominica. It finds that NDs have large and persistent negative effects on output and public finances. It also shows that adaptation investment has large returns in terms of private investment, employment, output and tax revenue in the long term, especially under climate change.

Author: Emilio Fernandez Corugedo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Ezequiel Cabezon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513525794
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Book Description
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.

Author: Mr.Alessandro Cantelmo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515381
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 52

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Book Description
Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Taylor projection, a solution method that is shown to deal effectively with high-impact weather shocks calibrated in accordance to empirical evidence. We find large and persistent effects of weather shocks that significantly impact the income convergence path of disaster-prone countries. Relative to non-disaster-prone countries, on average, these shocks cause a welfare loss equivalent to a permanent fall in consumption of 1.6 percent. Welfare gains to countries that self-finance investments in resilient public infrastructure are found to be negligible, and international aid has to be sizable to achieve significant welfare gains. In addition, it is more cost-effective for donors to contribute to the financing of resilience before the realization of disasters, rather than disbursing aid after their realization.

Author: Alessandro Cantelmo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498302653
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 18

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Book Description
Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection —insurance and self-insurance— and structural protection —investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the St. Lucia’s economy, this paper shows that both strategies considerably reduce the output loss from natural disasters and studies the conditions under which each of the two strategies provides the best protection. While structural protection normally delivers a larger payoff because of its direct dampening effect on the cost of disasters, financial protection is superior when liquidity constraints limit the ability of the government to rebuild public capital promptly. The estimated trade-off is very sensitive to the efficiency of public investment.

Author: Mr. Giovanni Melina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513582445
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21

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Book Description
The increased likelihood of adverse climate-change-related shocks calls for building resilient infrastructure in the Maldives. Fulfilling these infrastructure needs requires a comprehensive analysis of investment plans, including with respect to their degree of climate resilience, their impact on future economic prospects, and their funding costs and sources. This paper analyzes these challenges, through calibrating a general equilibrium model. The main finding is that there is a significant dividend associated with building resilient infrastructure. Under worsened climate conditions, the cumulative output gain from investing in more resilient technologies increases up to a factor of two. However, given the Maldives’ limited fiscal space, particularly after COVID-19, the international community should also step up cooperation efforts. We also show that it is financially convenient for donors to help build resilience prior to the occurrence of a natural disasters rather than helping finance the reconstruction ex-post.

Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264367454
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 165

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Book Description
This report identifies LAC countries’ main climate change policy priorities, which were discussed through a series of Regional Policy Dialogues and Expert Workshops and complements these with findings of recent analyses by the OECD and other international partners. It explores issues related to their implementation on climate adaptation, mitigation, and cross-cutting policy areas.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115

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Book Description
Jamaica has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This aided the country to adapt to the difficult global environment of the past few years. The authorities provided targeted support to the economy during the pandemic but promptly scaled it back as conditions normalized. Similarly, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, domestic food and energy prices were left to adjust to shifts in international markets while targeted support was provided to the poor. The economy is expected to continue its post-COVID recovery, with inflation returning to the central bank’s target range by end-2023. The outlook is subject to downside risks from potential new COVID waves, higher commodity prices, a global slowdown, and tighter than expected global financial conditions.

Author: Stéphane Hallegatte
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319089331
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194

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Book Description
This book explores economic concepts related to disaster losses, describes mechanisms that determine the economic consequences of a disaster, and reviews methodologies for making decisions regarding risk management and adaptation. The author addresses the need for better understanding of the consequences of disasters and reviews and analyzes three scientific debates on linkage between disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change. The first involves the existence and magnitude of long-term economic impact of natural disasters on development. The second is the disagreement over whether any development is the proper solution to high vulnerability to disaster risk. The third debate involves the difficulty of drawing connections between natural disasters and climate change and the challenge in managing them through an integrated strategy. The introduction describes economic views of disaster, including direct and indirect costs, output and welfare losses, and use of econometric tools to measure losses. The next section defines disaster risk, delineates between “good” and “bad” risk-taking, and discusses a pathway to balanced growth. A section entitled “Trends in Hazards and the Role of Climate Change” sets scenarios for climate change analysis, discusses statistical and physical models for downscaling global climate scenarios to extreme event scenarios, and considers how to consider extremes of hot and cold, storms, wind, drought and flood. Another section analyzes case studies on hurricanes and the US coastline; sea-level rises and storm surge in Copenhagen; and heavy precipitation in Mumbai. A section on Methodologies for disaster risk management includes a study on cost-benefit analysis of coastal protections in New Orleans, and one on early-warning systems in developing countries. The next section outlines decision-making in disaster risk management, including robust decision-making, No-regret and No-risk strategies; and strategies that reduce time horizons for decision-making. Among the conclusions is the assertion that risk management policies must recognize the benefits of risk-taking and avoid suppressing it entirely. The main message is that a combination of disaster-risk-reduction, resilience-building and adaptation policies can yield large potential gains and synergies.

Author: Swenja Surminski
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319406949
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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Book Description
Why aren’t we investing more in disaster resilience, despite the rising costs of disaster events? This book argues that decision-makers in governments, businesses, households, and development agencies tend to focus on avoiding losses from disasters, and perceive the return on investment as uncertain – only realised if a somewhat unlikely disaster event actually happens. This book develops a new business case for investment based on the multiple dividends of resilience. This looks beyond only avoided losses (the first dividend) to the wider benefits gained independently of whether or not the disaster event occurs. These include unleashing entrepreneurial activities and productive investments by lowering the looming threat of losses from disasters and enabling businesses, farmers and homeowners to take positive risks (the second dividend); and co-benefits of resilience measures beyond just disaster risk (the third dividend), such as flood embankments in Bangladesh that double as roads, or wetlands in Colombo that reduce urban heat extremes.