Chance and Error PDF Download

Author: Marsh Hopkins
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Probabilities
Languages : en
Pages : 244

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Author: Alexander Holmes
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781998109494
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Printed in color. Introductory Business Statistics is designed to meet the scope and sequence requirements of the one-semester statistics course for business, economics, and related majors. Core statistical concepts and skills have been augmented with practical business examples, scenarios, and exercises. The result is a meaningful understanding of the discipline, which will serve students in their business careers and real-world experiences.

Author: Marsh Hopkins
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000020401
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 234

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Book Description
Originally published in 1923 Chance and Error examines the vagaries of chance, and how this is the result of the interference of yes and no. The book basis its examination of chance on the idea of a two-sided coin. The book stipulates that contradictories are head and tail, or yes and no. When the coin is flipped in the air yes normally wins half of the trials, but this includes half of the half that normally go to no. Thus, normally in one quarter of the trials there is an interference of yes and no. From this the chance of any number of heads or tails can be easily calculated, and all results that are attained by more difficult mathematics are secured. The book uses this idea to examine interference of yes and no in everyday life and argues that this causes the variations in everything that goes on around us in nature and in our daily life. This book will be of interest to philosophers of logic, as well as mathematicians.

Author: Marit L. Bovbjerg
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781955101035
Category : Health & Fitness
Languages : en
Pages : 176

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Book Description
Foundations of Epidemiology is an open access, introductory epidemiology text intended for students and practitioners in public or allied health fields. It covers epidemiologic thinking, causality, incidence and prevalence, public health surveillance, epidemiologic study designs and why we care about which one is used, measures of association, random error and bias, confounding and effect modification, and screening. Concepts are illustrated with numerous examples drawn from contemporary and historical public health issues.

Author: J. Mark Elwood
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199218250
Category : Causation
Languages : en
Pages : 585

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Book Description
This book presents a logical system of critical appraisal, to allow readers to evaluate studies and to carry out their own studies more effectively. This system emphasizes the central importance of cause and effect relationships. Its great strength is that it is applicable to a wide range of issues, and both to intervention trials and observational studies. This system unifies the often different approaches used in epidemiology, health services research, clinical trials, and evidence-based medicine, starting from a logical consideration of cause and effect. The author's approach to the issues of study design, selection of subjects, bias, confounding, and the place of statistical methods has been praised for its clarity and interest. Systematic reviews, meta-analysis, and the applications of this logic to evidence-based medicine, knowledge-based health care, and health practice and policy are discussed. Current and often controversial examples are used, including screening for prostate cancer, publication bias in psychiatry, public health issues in developing countries, and conflicts between observational studies and randomized trials. Statistical issues are explained clearly without complex mathematics, and the most useful methods are summarized in the appendix.

Author: David F. Anderson
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110824498X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 447

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Book Description
This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588367673
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369

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Book Description
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

Author: Deborah G. Mayo
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108563309
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 503

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Book Description
Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

Author: Jayati Das-Munshi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0191054461
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 465

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Book Description
Epidemiology has been defined as the study of the distribution and determinants of health states or events in defined populations and its application to the control of health problems. Psychiatric epidemiology has continued to develop and apply these core principles in relation to mental health and mental disorders. This long-awaited second edition of Practical Psychiatric Epidemiology covers all of the considerable new developments in psychiatric epidemiology that have occurred since the first edition was published. It includes new content on key topics such as life course epidemiology, gene/environment interactions, bioethics, patient and public involvement in research, mixed methods research, new statistical methods, case registers, policy, and implementation. Looking to the future of this rapidly evolving scientific discipline and how it will to respond to the emerging opportunities and challenges posed by 'big data', new technologies, open science and globalisation, this new edition will continue to serve as an invaluable reference for clinicians in practice and in training. It will also be of interest to researchers in mental health and people studying or teaching psychiatric epidemiology at undergraduate or postgraduate level.

Author: Alex Reinhart
Publisher: No Starch Press
ISBN: 1593276206
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 177

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Book Description
Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong.