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Author: Samya Beidas-Strom Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498320503 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498320503 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 151351718X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Author: Mauro Bernardi Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 3039437852 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 146
Book Description
Since the advent of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the early 1990s, Bayesian methods have been proposed for a large and growing number of applications. One of the main advantages of Bayesian inference is the ability to deal with many different sources of uncertainty, including data, models, parameters and parameter restriction uncertainties, in a unified and coherent framework. This book contributes to this literature by collecting a set of carefully evaluated contributions that are grouped amongst two topics in financial economics. The first three papers refer to macro-finance issues for real economy, including the elasticity of factor substitution (ES) in the Cobb–Douglas production function, the effects of government public spending components, and quantitative easing, monetary policy and economics. The last three contributions focus on cryptocurrency and stock market predictability. All arguments are central ingredients in the current economic discussion and their importance has only been further emphasized by the COVID-19 crisis.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498345697 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 151357227X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Author: Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513525905 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
The oil market is undergoing fundamental change. New technologies are increasing the supply of oil from old and new sources, while rising concerns over the environment are seeing the world gradually moving away from oil. This spells a significant challenge for oil-exporting countries, including those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) who account for a fifth of the world’s oil production. The GCC countries have recognized the need to reduce their reliance on oil and are all implementing reforms to diversify their economies as well as fiscal and external revenues. Nevertheless, as global oil demand is expected to peak in the next two decades, the associated fiscal imperative could be both larger and more urgent than implied by the GCC countries’ existing plans.
Author: Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451850247 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
With the start of the process of its transition to a market economy in early 1990, Romania joined the ranks of other reforming Eastern European countries. At the starting point of its reform program, however, Romania was in a deep economic and institutional crisis and had no experience in even modest attempts to reform its economy. This paper outlines the main characteristics of the Romanian economic system before the reform, and presents the evolution of the reform program, as well as its achievements in the first year or so since it was launched.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513513494 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 38
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success.
Author: Mr.Tim Callen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498303234 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451947437 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 324
Book Description
This paper presents main characteristics of a typical oil economy. Estimates of proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia differ widely, ranging from estimates by ARAMCO and the other companies of about 100 billion barrels to figures exceeding 150 billion barrels. In 1969, two US firms commissioned by the Saudi Arabian Government completed studies of the country's oil reserves, estimating 126.4 billion barrels for the fields surveyed. Growth of oil production in Saudi Arabia has been determined largely by exogenous factors connected with the growth of world demand for oil and fluctuations in supplies from other producing areas. Industrial and agricultural development in Saudi Arabia has been constrained by the scarcity of natural resources, other than oil. Agricultural and fishery resources can be potentially significant, but only recently have they been systematically explored. Based on a clear comparative advantage in the supply of oil and natural gas, industrial development in Saudi Arabia is proceeding from oil production and refining to petrochemicals and to other energy-intensive industries.
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Author: Mauro Bernardi
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Author: Mr.Tokhir N Mirzoev
Author: Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Author: Mr.Tim Callen
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.