Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies PDF Download

Author: Mr.Philip Liu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455254290
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27

View

Book Description
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.

Author: Norman Loayza
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821360914
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 169

View

Book Description
Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.

Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815704
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64

View

Book Description
After a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the region had entered a phase of lackluster performance. Recent developments, including a new oil price shock, and the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic will push the region into recession. Many countries are struggling to contain the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic while avoiding a dramatic decline in economic activity. The report analyzes how to think about this tradeoff. It estimates the potential health costs, assesses the effectiveness of diverse containment strategies, and discusses how large the economic cost could be. The current crisis is unprecedented because it combines a fall in global demand, tighter financial conditions and a major supply shock. The response needs to consider how to socialize the losses, how to prevent a collapse of the financial sector, how to protect jobs and livelihoods, and how to manage and divest the assets that will inevitably end up in the hands of the state.

Author:
Publisher: ScholarlyEditions
ISBN: 149010688X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1229

View

Book Description
Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Theoretical Economics. The editors have built Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Theoretical Economics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359798
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 79

View

Book Description
This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.

Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816506
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 76

View

Book Description
Latin America and the Caribbean was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which arrived on the back of years of disappointing economic growth and limited social progress, and after a wave of social unrest. This report reviews the impacts of the crisis as well as the policy responses by countries, which often involved sizeable social transfers. It also presents growth forecasts, and quarterly growth estimates based on satellite imagery. With countries experiencing a diverse mix of health costs and economic costs, the report analyzes how the effectiveness of containment policies, and their impact on economic activity, differ between richer and poorer countries. It also assesses the cost of staying healthy in normal times, showing how it is affected by the structure of the domestic pharmaceutical sector and by the effectiveness of public procurement of medicines. As the region may have to live with the virus for a while, four policy directions are proposed for discussion.

Author: Ms.Dora M. Iakova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498328164
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270

View

Book Description
Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616350598
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 242

View

Book Description
The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

Author: César Yáñez
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317320891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 257

View

Book Description
The economic backwardness of Latin America and the Caribbean has long been discussed, but seldom been the subject of such a wide-ranging quantitative study. The twelve essays in this collection present a twenty-first-century analysis of a long-term issue, providing extensive geographical coverage and allowing reinterpretations of the past.

Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264424199
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 308

View

Book Description
The Latin American Economic Outlook (LEO) 2020 focuses on the role of digital transformation in helping to navigate through challenging times. The Covid-19 pandemic is having a profound impact on socio-economic conditions, accentuating the already complex scenario faced by a region with significant structural weaknesses. This unprecedented crisis comes at a time of high aspirations and reinforces the need to transform the very foundations of the development model in the region.