The Dynamic Effects of Trade Liberalization PDF Download

Author: Joseph F. Francois
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Free trade
Languages : en
Pages : 88

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Author:
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1457825414
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 166

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Author: United States International Trade Commission
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 168

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Author: Thomas Fox Rutherford
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Developing countries
Languages : en
Pages : 54

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Book Description
September 1998 Although trade liberalization has been linked econometrically and through casual empiricism to large income increases, attempts to quantify its impact in static simulation models have shown estimated gains. This paper shows that when the endogenous dynamic effects of trade liberalization are built into simulation models, the estimated gains are indeed very large. But complementary regulatory, financial market, and macroeconomic reforms are important to realize the largest gains. Rutherford and Tarr develop a numerical endogenous growth model approximating an infinite horizon, which allows them to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth. Economic theory generally implies that trade liberalization will improve economic growth, and the two phenomena are positively correlated in empirical tests, but the connection is not well-substantiated in numerical general equilibrium models. In the authors' model, an intermediate input affects aggregate output through a Dixit-Stiglitz function. Additional varieties provide the engine of growth in this framework and the existence of this mechanism magnifies the welfare costs. In this model with lump sum revenue replacement, reducing a tariff from 20 percent to 10 percent produces a welfare increase (in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation over the infinite horizon) of 10.7 percent of the present value of consumption in their central model, where the economy is assumed to be unable to borrow on international financial markets. If macroeconomic and financial reforms are in place that would allow international borrowing, however, the same tariff cut is estimated to result in a 37 percent increase in Hicksian equivalent variation. On the other hand, if inefficient replacement taxes must be used in an economy without the capacity to borrow internationally, the gains would be reduced to 4.7 percent. Larger tariff cuts-typical of those in many developing countries over the past 30 years-produce larger estimated welfare gains at least proportionate to the size of the cut. The authors apply the model to five developing countries and estimate the impact of the tariff changes those countries plan to undertake as part of Uruguay Round commitments. Because of the dynamic effects, estimated gains are considerably larger than those found in the literature on the impact of the Uruguay Round. This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade and investment on economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Dynamic Impact of Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries (RPO 681-40). David Tarr may be contacted at [email protected].

Author: Romain Wacziarg
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 9781788111492
Category : Free trade
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This compelling two-volume collection presents the major literary contributions to the economic analysis of the consequences of trade liberalization on growth, productivity, labor market outcomes and economic inequality. Examining the classical theories that stress gains from trade stemming from comparative advantage, the selection also comprises more recent theories of imperfect competition, where any potential gains from trade can stem from competitive effects or the international transmission of knowledge. Empirical contributions provide evidence regarding the explanatory power of these various theories, including work on the effects of trade openness on economic growth, wages, and income inequality, as well as evidence on the effects of trade on firm productivity, entry and exit. Prefaced by an original introduction from the editor, the collection will to be an invaluable research resource for academics, practitioners and those drawn to this fascinating topic.

Author: Joseph F. Francois
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Free trade
Languages : en
Pages : 84

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Author: Rajib Bhattacharyya
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1838670068
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 201

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Book Description
Geared towards policy makers, researchers, academics, and business and management professionals, The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization helps readers develop new theories and models for analysing the future trends in finance and trade-related issues.

Author: Steven Durlauf
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642612113
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204

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Book Description
One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.

Author: Thomas F. Rutherford
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Although trade liberalization has been linked econometrically and through casual empiricism to large income increases, attempts to quantify its impact in static simulation models have shown estimated gains. This paper shows that when the endogenous dynamic effects of trade liberalization are built into simulation models, the estimated gains are indeed very large. But complementary regulatory, financial market, and macroeconomic reforms are important to realize the largest gains. Rutherford and Tarr develop a numerical endogenous growth model approximating an infinite horizon, which allows them to investigate the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth. Economic theory generally implies that trade liberalization will improve economic growth, and the two phenomena are positively correlated in empirical tests, but the connection is not well-substantiated in numerical general equilibrium models. In the authors' model, an intermediate input affects aggregate output through a Dixit-Stiglitz function. Additional varieties provide the engine of growth in this framework and the existence of this mechanism magnifies the welfare costs. In this model with lump sum revenue replacement, reducing a tariff from 20 percent to 10 percent produces a welfare increase (in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation over the infinite horizon) of 10.7 percent of the present value of consumption in their central model, where the economy is assumed to be unable to borrow on international financial markets. If macroeconomic and financial reforms are in place that would allow international borrowing, however, the same tariff cut is estimated to result in a 37 percent increase in Hicksian equivalent variation. On the other hand, if inefficient replacement taxes must be used in an economy without the capacity to borrow internationally, the gains would be reduced to 4.7 percent. Larger tariff cuts-typical of those in many developing countries over the past 30 years-produce larger estimated welfare gains at least proportionate to the size of the cut. The authors apply the model to five developing countries and estimate the impact of the tariff changes those countries plan to undertake as part of Uruguay Round commitments. Because of the dynamic effects, estimated gains are considerably larger than those found in the literature on the impact of the Uruguay Round. This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the impact of trade and investment on economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project The Dynamic Impact of Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries (RPO 681-40).

Author: Pooja Lakhanpal
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813369736
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 396

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Book Description
The book contributes to the growing literature pertaining to empirical and policy issues in international trade, foreign capital flows and issues in finance, implications for India and emerging economies related to trade and development interface, and analysis of sector level growth and development in India. Further, the focus is on the policy aspects of these themes and their role in fostering economic development in the context of India and other emerging market economies. The discourse focuses mainly on empirical work and econometric details. The relevant issues are investigated using state of the art techniques such as gravity models, panel co-integration, generalized hyperbolic distributions, SEM, FMOLS and Probit models. In addition, detailed literature survey, discussions on data availability, issues related to statistical estimation techniques and a theoretical background, ensure that each chapter significantly contributes to the ever-growing literature on international trade and capital flows. The readers shall find an engaging dialogue on the crucial role played by policy and the trade-capital flows-growth experience of emerging economies. The book is relevant for those who are interested in contemporary issues in trade, growth and finance as well as for students of advanced econometrics who may benefit from the analytical and econometric exposition. The empirical evidences provided here could serve as ready reference for academicians, researchers and policy makers, particularly in emerging economies facing similar challenges.