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Author: Peter Schwartz Publisher: Basic Books ISBN: 9780738200743 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 358
Book Description
As we stand at the threshold of the new millennium, the future seems both exhilarating and terrifying. Does it hold great promise of freedom and opportunity or the threat of conflict and inequality? In the tradition of such influential and defining books as Future Shock and Megatrends , Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt argue in The Long Boom that we are, in fact, on the verge of a global economic expansion on a scale never before experienced—and that the choices we make as informed individuals, institutions, communities, and nations today will determine whether that vision is realized. Analyzing economic, political, technological and socio-cultural trends that began to converge in the early 1980s, the authors offer a compelling—and highly plausible—vision of how the next twenty years will unfold. By 2020, we can expect to experience tremendous advances in now-emerging technologies; widespread adoption of alternative energy sources; increased productivity; and, perhaps most important, the creation of a truly global economy. Going beyond a description of this scenario, the authors identify potential bumps in the road and urge educators, policy makers, business leaders, social activists, and individuals in all types of organizations to participate in the “politics of the long boom,” the realm where people come together to pool resources and solve common problems. Grand in scope but intensely personal in scale, The Long Boom shows us all how to take an active role in creating a vibrant, diverse, constantly learning, and sustainable global society.
Author: Peter Schwartz Publisher: Basic Books ISBN: 9780738200743 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 358
Book Description
As we stand at the threshold of the new millennium, the future seems both exhilarating and terrifying. Does it hold great promise of freedom and opportunity or the threat of conflict and inequality? In the tradition of such influential and defining books as Future Shock and Megatrends , Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt argue in The Long Boom that we are, in fact, on the verge of a global economic expansion on a scale never before experienced—and that the choices we make as informed individuals, institutions, communities, and nations today will determine whether that vision is realized. Analyzing economic, political, technological and socio-cultural trends that began to converge in the early 1980s, the authors offer a compelling—and highly plausible—vision of how the next twenty years will unfold. By 2020, we can expect to experience tremendous advances in now-emerging technologies; widespread adoption of alternative energy sources; increased productivity; and, perhaps most important, the creation of a truly global economy. Going beyond a description of this scenario, the authors identify potential bumps in the road and urge educators, policy makers, business leaders, social activists, and individuals in all types of organizations to participate in the “politics of the long boom,” the realm where people come together to pool resources and solve common problems. Grand in scope but intensely personal in scale, The Long Boom shows us all how to take an active role in creating a vibrant, diverse, constantly learning, and sustainable global society.
Author: Aaron Tornell Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 206
Book Description
Analysis and evidence of how the factors that give rise to boom-bust cycles in fast-growing developing economies also enhance long-run growth. The volatility that has hit many middle-income countries (MICs) after liberalizing their financial markets has prompted critics to call for new policies to stabilize these boom-bust cycles. But, as Aaron Tornell and Frank Westermann point out in this book, over the last two decades most of the developing countries that have experienced lending booms and busts have also exhibited the fastest growth among MICs. Countries with more stable credit growth, by contrast, have exhibited, on average, lower growth rates. Factors that contribute to financial fragility thus appear, paradoxically, to be a source of long-run growth as well. Tornell and Westermann analyze boom-bust cycles in the developing world and discuss how these cycles are generated by credit market imperfections. They explain why the financial liberalization that allows countries to overcome imperfections impeding rapid growth also generates the financial fragility that leads to greater volatility and occasional crises. The conceptual framework they present illustrates this linkage and allows Tornell and Westermann to address normative questions regarding liberalization policies.The authors also characterize key macroeconomic regularities observed across MICs, showing that credit markets play a key role not only in boom-bust episodes but in the strong "credit channel" observed during tranquil times. A theoretical framework is then presented that explains how credit market imperfections can account for these empirical patterns. Finally, Tornell and Westermann provide microeconomic evidence on the credit market imperfections that drive the results of the theoretical framework, finding that asymmetries between tradables and nontradables are key to understanding the patterns in MIC data.
Author: Robert Brenner Publisher: Verso Books ISBN: 1789609135 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 304
Book Description
A sustained period of significant growth in the US, however, seemed to save the day against all the odds. So impressive was the surface appearance of this rescue mission that all manner of commentators proclaimed-once again-that a 'new economy' or 'new paradigm' of unlimited and harmonious growth had been forged. Today, as recession looms, the babble about Internet start-ups is exposed as vapid. Yet the pundits are no nearer an understanding of how or why the boom turned into a bubble, or why the bubble has burst. In this crisp and forensic book, Robert Brenner demonstrates that the boom was always a fragile phenomenon-buoyed up by absurd levels of debt and stock-market overvaluation-which never broke free from the fundamental malady of overcapacity and overproduction which continues to afflict the global economy. Carefully dismantling the myths and hype that surround the US boom in terms of profitability, investment, and productivity, Brenner restores the properly international context to the process. He portrays the 'zero-sum' character of the American success, which presupposed the relative weakness of its main German and Japanese competitors: a strategy that has laid huge obstacles in the path of a 'soft landing' to end the current phase of growth. A substantial new Postscript provides and up-to-date analysis of the Bush economic debacle-the crisis of manufacturing, the telecom bust, the record twin deficits, plummeting employment, and the real estate bubble.
Author: Marc Levinson Publisher: Basic Books ISBN: 0465096565 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 336
Book Description
The decades after World War II were a golden age across much of the world. It was a time of economic miracles, an era when steady jobs were easy to find and families could see their living standards improving year after year. And then, around 1973, the good times vanished. The world economy slumped badly, then settled into the slow, erratic growth that had been the norm before the war. The result was an era of anxiety, uncertainty, and political extremism that we are still grappling with today. In An Extraordinary Time, acclaimed economic historian Marc Levinson describes how the end of the postwar boom reverberated throughout the global economy, bringing energy shortages, financial crises, soaring unemployment, and a gnawing sense of insecurity. Politicians, suddenly unable to deliver the prosperity of years past, railed haplessly against currency speculators, oil sheikhs, and other forces they could not control. From Sweden to Southern California, citizens grew suspicious of their newly ineffective governments and rebelled against the high taxes needed to support social welfare programs enacted when coffers were flush. Almost everywhere, the pendulum swung to the right, bringing politicians like Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan to power. But their promise that deregulation, privatization, lower tax rates, and smaller government would restore economic security and robust growth proved unfounded. Although the guiding hand of the state could no longer deliver the steady economic performance the public had come to expect, free-market policies were equally unable to do so. The golden age would not come back again. A sweeping reappraisal of the last sixty years of world history, An Extraordinary Time forces us to come to terms with how little control we actually have over the economy.
Author: Robert Cherry Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation ISBN: 1610441230 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 349
Book Description
With the nation enjoying a remarkable long and robust economic expansion, AfricanAmerican employment has risen to an all-time high. Does this good news refute the notion of a permanently disadvantaged black underclass, or has one type of disadvantage been replaced by another? Some economists fear that many newly employed minority workers will remain stuck in low-wage jobs, barred from better-paying, high skill jobs by their lack of educational opportunities and entrenched racial discrimination. Prosperity for All? draws upon the research and insights of respected economists to address these important issues. Prosperity for All? reveals that while African Americans benefit in many ways from a strong job market, serious problems remain. Research presented in this book shows that the ratio of black to white unemployment has actually increased over recent expansions. Even though African American men are currently less likely to leave the workforce, the number of those who do not find work at all has grown substantially, indicating that joblessness is now concentrated among the most alienated members of the population. Other chapters offer striking evidence that racial inequality is still pervasive. Among men, black high school dropouts have more difficulty finding work than their Latino or white counterparts. Likewise, the glass ceiling that limits minority access to higher paying promotions persists even in a strong economy. Prosperity for All? ascribes black disadvantage in the labor force to employer discrimination, particularly when there is strong competition for jobs. As one study illustrates, economic upswings do not appear to change racial preferences among employers, who remain less willing to hire African Americans for more skilled low-wage jobs. Prosperity for All? offers a timely investigation into the impact of strong labor markets on low-skill African-American workers, with important insights into the issues engendered by the weakening of federal assistance, job training, and affirmative action programs.
Author: OECD Publisher: OECD Publishing ISBN: 926417401X Category : Languages : en Pages : 198
Book Description
This book reviews the forces driving economic and social change in today's world. It asesses the likelihood of a long boom materialising in the first decades of the 21st century and explores the strategic policies essential for making it happen.
Author: A. W. Maldonado Publisher: University of Notre Dame Pess ISBN: 0268200998 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 318
Book Description
Who is to blame for the economic and political crisis in Puerto Rico—the United States or Puerto Rico? This book provides a fascinating historical perspective on the problem and an unequivocal answer on who is to blame. In this engaging and approachable book, journalist A. W. Maldonado charts the rise and fall of the Puerto Rican economy and explains how a litany of bad political and fiscal policy decisions in Washington and Puerto Rico destroyed an economic miracle. Under Operation Bootstrap in the 1950s and '60s, the rapid transformation and industrialization of the Puerto Rican economy was considered a “wonder of human history,” a far cry from the economic “death spiral” the island’s governor described in 2015. Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico is the story of how the demise of an obscure tax policy that encouraged investment and economic growth led to escalating budget deficits and the government’s shocking default of its $70 billion debt. Maldonado also discusses the extent of the devastation from Hurricane Maria in 2017, the massive street protests during 2019, and the catastrophic earthquakes in January 2020. After illuminating the century of misunderstanding between Puerto Rico and the United States—the root cause of the economic crisis and the island’s gridlocked debates about its political status—Maldonado concludes with projections about the future of the relationship. He argues that, in the end, the economic, fiscal, and political crises are the result of the breakdown and failure of Puerto Rican self-government. Boom and Bust in Puerto Rico is written for a wide audience, including students, economists, politicians, and general readers, all of whom will find it interesting and thought provoking.
Author: William Quinn Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1108369359 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 297
Book Description
Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.
Author: Peter Schwartz
Author: Peter Schwartz
Author: 
Author: Robert Brenner
Author: Aaron Tornell
Author: Robert Brenner
Author: Marc Levinson
Author: Robert Cherry
Author: OECD
Author: A. W. Maldonado
Author: William Quinn