Author: Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric ozone
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Book Description
Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making : Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2 Report
Author: Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making
Author: M. Granger MorganPublisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437912605
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 156
Book Description
This report is one of 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program as part of an effort to integrate fed. research on climate change and to facilitate a nat. understanding of the critical elements of climate change. Most of these reports are focused on specific substantive issues in climate science, impacts and related topics. In contrast, the focus of this report is methodological. This report provides a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. While the language is semi-technical, much of it should also be accessible to non-expert readers who are comfortable with the treatment of technical topics. Illus.
Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making
Author: Review of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2, "Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making"
Author: National Research CouncilPublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309179858
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Book Description
This report reviews the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's new draft assessment product on characterizing and communicating uncertainty information for climate change decision making, one of 21 climate change assessment products that the program is developing to meet the requirements of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. Although the draft assessment is effective in discussing methods of characterizing uncertainty, it falls short in several ways. It is written for researchers involved in assessment efforts and will likely be of use to them, but does not address other key audiences, particularly policymakers, decision-makers, and members of the media and general public. In addition, it does not assess the full range of "best practice approaches" for characterizing, incorporating, and communicating uncertainty. These weaknesses were due in part to a change in the prospectus after the process had begun to include new target audiences and a different scope of work. It will take a substantial revision of the current draft or production of a companion document, both requiring additional authors, to address these issues.
Best Practicing Approaching for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making
Author: Climate Change Science ProgramPublisher: CreateSpace
ISBN: 9781500479169
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 92
Book Description
The primary objective of this report is to provide a tutorial to the climate analysis and decision-making communities on current best practice in describing and analyzing uncertainty in climate-related problems. The report discusses a number of formulations of uncertainty and the various ways in which uncertainty can arise. It introduces several alternative perspectives on uncertainty including both the classical or frequentist view of probability, which defines probability as the property of a large number of repeated trials of some process such as the toss of a coin, and the subjectivist view, in which probability is an indication of degree of belief informed by all available evidence. A distinction is drawn between uncertainty about the value of specific quantities and uncertainty about the underlying functional relationships among key variables. Finally the report addresses a number of issues that arise in communicating about uncertainty. The report includes lessons from both the mitigation and adaptation domain. Reference: Granger Morgan, M., Dowlatabadi, H., Henrion, M., Keith, D., Lempert, R., McBride, S., Small, M. and Wilbanks, T. (Eds.) (2009) Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Decisionmaking, A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC, US.
Our Changing Planet
Author: Climate Change Science Program (U.S.)Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 220
Book Description
Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis
Author: M. Granger MorganPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316884961
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 607
Book Description
Many books instruct readers on how to use the tools of policy analysis. This book is different. Its primary focus is on helping readers to look critically at the strengths, limitations, and the underlying assumptions analysts make when they use standard tools or problem framings. Using examples, many of which involve issues in science and technology, the book exposes readers to some of the critical issues of taste, professional responsibility, ethics, and values that are associated with policy analysis and research. Topics covered include policy problems formulated in terms of utility maximization such as benefit-cost, decision, and multi-attribute analysis, issues in the valuation of intangibles, uncertainty in policy analysis, selected topics in risk analysis and communication, limitations and alternatives to the paradigm of utility maximization, issues in behavioral decision theory, issues related to organizations and multiple agents, and selected topics in policy advice and policy analysis for government.
Shaping the Message, Distorting the Science
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science and Technology (2007). Subcommittee on Investigations and OversightPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 396
Book Description
Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty
Author: Institute of MedicinePublisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309290236
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 280
Book Description
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Addressing Climate Change in Local Water Agency Plans
Author: David G. GrovesPublisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833082558
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 77
Book Description
This report describes an approach for planning under deep uncertainty, Robust Decision Making (RDM), and demonstrates its use by the El Dorado Irrigation District (EID). Using RDM, the authors and EID tested the robustness of current long-term water management plans and more robust alternatives across more than 50 futures reflecting different assumptions about future climate, urban growth, and the availability of important new supplies.