Author: Willi Semmler Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 131528880X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 274
Book Description
As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.
Author: Francis X. Diebold Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691219583 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 438
Book Description
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513536990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author: Eleonora Cavallaro Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN: Category : Business cycles Languages : en Pages : 204
Book Description
This book provides an analysis of the endogenous mechanisms that govern the dynamic processes in capitalist economies. A nonlinear IS-LM version of a macromodel is developed in which real and financial feed-back mechanisms lead to income distribution-employment dynamics along with fluctuations in aggregate demand and the capacity utilisation rate. Emphasis is placed on the relevance of demand constraints in firms' pricing strategies, within the context of imperfectly competitive markets, and its implications for the dynamics of income distribution in the cyclical process. The financial mechanisms appear in terms of the effects of the endogenous liquidity creation process on the dynamics of firms' indebtedness. The stress is on the two-fold nature of «finance» it supports the accumulation process and enhances growth, and yet it can lead to financial fragility and act as a source of systemic instability.
Author: Fischer Black Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470499176 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 224
Book Description
An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy Warns about the use and abuse of modeling Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing" Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.
Author: Jon Gregory Taylor Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471188797 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
Ein übersichtlicher Leitfaden für eine nützliche Technik! Der Autor, Experte der Zeitplanung im Investmentgeschäft, erklärt dem Finanz- und Investmentprofi in diesem Buch, wie er seinen Ertrag in verschiedenen Stadien des Geschäftszyklus abschätzen kann. Dabei wird auf alle Facetten des Investments wie Aktien-, Wertpapier- und Fondsgeschäft eingegangen. (11/97)
Author: David J. Carrier Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317506774 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
This volume, originally published in 1997, examines the combined effect of financial instability and industrial restructuring on postwar economic growth and recession in the US. It sheds light on the fundamental question of whether or not these trends are positive for the economy as a whole. To explain the cyclical nature of investment and finance, institutional theory regarding financial instability is examined in depth and related to Minsky’s analysis of investment behaviour. The author has created an empirical model of this behaviour which, he claims, accurately predicts historical consumption investment and GDP cycles.
Author: Thomas F. Cooley Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 9780691043234 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 452
Book Description
This introduction to modern business cycle theory uses a neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods, it applies concepts to t
Author: Willi Semmler
Author: A. W. Mullineux
Author: Francis X. Diebold
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Author: Eleonora Cavallaro
Author: Wesley Clair Mitchell
Author: Fischer Black
Author: Jon Gregory Taylor
Author: David J. Carrier
Author: Thomas F. Cooley