Author: Haroon M. Barakat Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing ISBN: 1527534650 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
This book tackles some modern trends and methods in the modelling of extreme data. Usually such data arise from random phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, air and water pollutants, extreme claim sizes, life spans, and maximum sizes of ecological populations. It provides the latest statistical methods to model these random phenomena to understand and predict them, thus allowing the avoidance of damage or at least minimizing it. In addition, this book sheds light on the mathematical and statistical theories on which applied modelling methods were built. Therefore, it has both an applied and theoretical orientation, and represents a valuable addition to existing literature on the modelling of extreme value data.
Author: Patrick J. Michaels Publisher: Cato Institute ISBN: 1935308041 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
There's a whole new world of global warming science today, but few people hear about it. In recent years, an internally consistent body of scientific literature has emerged that argues cogently for global warming but against the gloom-and-doom vision of climate change. But those who merely call attention to this literature are intimidated, blacklisted, and even driven from prestigious scientific employment. Calling the current scientific environment a "climate of extremes" is an understatement. It's a fact that there are fewer citations in the refereed scientific literature providing evidence for the moderate view of global warming, but that's to be expected. In Climate of Extremes, climatologists Patrick J. Michaels and Robert Balling Jr. explain that climate science is hardly unbiased, even though the global climate community itself believes that any new finding has an equal probability of making our climatic future appear more or less dire. Michaels and Balling examine all aspects of the apocalyptic vision of climate change making headlines almost every day: Hurricanes pumped up by global warming, rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctica resulting in 20 feet of sea-level rise in the next 90 years, that global warming is occurring at an increasing pace, and there is a massive increase in heat-wave related deaths. Each one of these pop-culture icons of climate change turns out to be short on facts and long on exaggeration. People who read Climate of Extremes will emerge well-armed against an army of extremists hawking climate change as the greatest threat ever to our society and way of life.
Author: Malcolm Kemp Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119962870 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
Taking due account of extreme events when constructing portfolios of assets or liabilities is a key discipline for market professionals. Extreme events are a fact of life in how markets operate. In Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails, leading expert Malcolm Kemp shows readers how to analyse market data to uncover fat-tailed behaviour, how to incorporate expert judgement in the handling of such information, and how to refine portfolio construction methodologies to make portfolios less vulnerable to extreme events or to benefit more from them. This is the only text that combines a comprehensive treatment of modern risk budgeting and portfolio construction techniques with the specific refinements needed for them to handle extreme events. It explains in a logical sequence what constitutes fat-tailed behaviour and why it arises, how we can analyse such behaviour, at aggregate, sector or instrument level, and how we can then take advantage of this analysis. Along the way, it provides a rigorous, comprehensive and clear development of traditional portfolio construction methodologies applicable if fat-tails are absent. It then explains how to refine these methodologies to accommodate real world behaviour. Throughout, the book highlights the importance of expert opinion, showing that even the most data-centric portfolio construction approaches ultimately depend on practitioner assumptions about how the world might behave. The book includes: Key concepts and methods involved in analysing extreme events A comprehensive treatment of mean-variance investing, Bayesian methods, market consistent approaches, risk budgeting, and their application to manager and instrument selection A systematic development of the refinements needed to traditional portfolio construction methodologies to cater for fat-tailed behaviour Latest developments in stress testing and back testing methodologies A strong focus on the practical implementation challenges that can arise at each step in the process and on how to overcome these challenges “Understanding how to model and analyse the risk of extreme events is a crucial part of the risk management process. This book provides a set of techniques that allow practitioners to do this comprehensively.” Paul Sweeting, Professor of Actuarial Science, University of Kent “How can the likeliness of crises affect the construction of portfolios? This question is highly topical in times where we still have to digest the last financial collapse. Malcolm Kemp gives the answer. His book is highly recommended to experts as well as to students in the financial field.” Christoph Krischanitz, President Actuarial Association of Austria, Chairman WG “Market Consistency” of Groupe Consultatif
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119018013 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 720
Book Description
Presents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy. The author presents fundamental concepts (hierarchical holographic modeling; state space; decision analysis; multi-objective trade-off analysis) as well as advanced material (extreme events and the partitioned multi-objective risk method; multi-objective decision trees; multi-objective risk impact analysis method; guiding principles in risk analysis); avoids higher mathematics whenever possible; and reinforces the material with examples and case studies. The book will be used in systems engineering, enterprise risk management, engineering management, industrial engineering, civil engineering, and operations research. The fourth edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management features: Expanded chapters on systems-based guiding principles for risk modeling, planning, assessment, management, and communication; modeling interdependent and interconnected complex systems of systems with phantom system models; and hierarchical holographic modeling An expanded appendix including a Bayesian analysis for the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity, and the Farmer’s Dilemma formulated and solved using a deterministic linear model Updated case studies including a new case study on sequential Pareto-optimal decisions for emergent complex systems of systems A new companion website with over 200 solved exercises that feature risk analysis theories, methodologies, and application Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, Fourth Edition, is written for both undergraduate and graduate students in systems engineering and systems management courses. The text also serves as a resource for academic, industry, and government professionals in the fields of homeland and cyber security, healthcare, physical infrastructure systems, engineering, business, and more.
Author: Saeid Eslamian Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1466552476 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 646
Book Description
While most books examine only the classical aspects of hydrology, this three-volume set covers multiple aspects of hydrology. It examines new approaches, addresses growing concerns about hydrological and ecological connectivity, and considers the worldwide impact of climate change.It also provides updated material on hydrological science and engine
Author: Alan E. Gelfand Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1351648543 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 679
Book Description
This handbook focuses on the enormous literature applying statistical methodology and modelling to environmental and ecological processes. The 21st century statistics community has become increasingly interdisciplinary, bringing a large collection of modern tools to all areas of application in environmental processes. In addition, the environmental community has substantially increased its scope of data collection including observational data, satellite-derived data, and computer model output. The resultant impact in this latter community has been substantial; no longer are simple regression and analysis of variance methods adequate. The contribution of this handbook is to assemble a state-of-the-art view of this interface. Features: An internationally regarded editorial team. A distinguished collection of contributors. A thoroughly contemporary treatment of a substantial interdisciplinary interface. Written to engage both statisticians as well as quantitative environmental researchers. 34 chapters covering methodology, ecological processes, environmental exposure, and statistical methods in climate science.
Author: Valery Shibaev Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642798616 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 232
Book Description
Polymeric materials have special advantages over other materials used for the recording, storage and retrieval of information, telecommunication transmission and visualization of images. The authors describe the synthesis, the physico-chemical behavior and the applications of these highly sensitive macromolecular systems. They discuss the most essential developments in this field. For scientists and professionals working in the field of electrooptical and photooptical polymeric materials.
Author: Victor Chang Publisher: Academic Press ISBN: 0323903789 Category : Medical Languages : en Pages : 294
Book Description
Novel AI and Data Science Advancements for Sustainability in the Era of COVID-19 discusses how the role of recent technologies applied to health settings can help fight virus outbreaks. Moreover, it provides guidelines on how governments and institutions should prepare and quickly respond to drastic situations using technology to support their communities in order to maintain life and functional as efficiently as possible. The book discusses topics such as AI-driven histopathology analysis for COVID-19 diagnosis, bioinformatics for subtype rational drug design, deep learning-based treatment evaluation and outcome prediction, sensor informatics for monitoring infected patients, and machine learning for tracking and prediction models. In addition, the book presents AI solutions for hospital management during an epidemic or pandemic, along with real-world solutions and case studies of successful measures to support different types of communities. This is a valuable source for medical informaticians, bioinformaticians, clinicians and other healthcare workers and researchers who are interested in learning more on how recently developed technologies can help us fight and minimize the effects of global pandemics. Discusses AI advancements in predictive and decision modeling and how to design mobile apps to track contagion spread Presents the smart contract concept in blockchain and cryptography technology to guarantee security and privacy of people’s data once their information has been used to fight the pandemic Encompasses guidelines for emergency preparedness, planning, recovery and continuity management of communities to support people in emergencies like a virus outbreak
Author: Haroon M. Barakat
Author: Patrick J. Michaels
Author: Malcolm Kemp
Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Author: 
Author: Alan E. Gelfand
Author: Valery Shibaev
Author: Victor Chang
Author: United States. Army. Ordnance Department. War Department