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Author: David Holmgren Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing ISBN: 1603582061 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 138
Book Description
In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Author: David Holmgren Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing ISBN: 1603582061 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 138
Book Description
In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us. “Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.” Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario. As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.” Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
Author: Liam Fahey Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471303527 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 478
Book Description
Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)
Author: Adam Kahane Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers ISBN: 1609944909 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
Transformative scenario planning is a way that people can work together with others to transform themselves and their relationships with one another and their systems. In this simple and practical book, Kahane explains this methodology and how to use it.
Author: V. Kostakis Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137406895 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 97
Book Description
This book builds on the idea that peer-to-peer infrastructures are gradually becoming the general conditions of work, economy, and society. Using a four-scenario approach, the authors seek to simplify possible outcomes and to explore relevant trajectories of the current techno-economic paradigm within and beyond capitalism.
Author: Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele Publisher: transcript Verlag ISBN: 3839453194 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 265
Book Description
What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research. Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.
Author: Robert Goodspeed Publisher: ISBN: 9781558444003 Category : City planning Languages : en Pages : 288
Book Description
""Describes the emerging use of collaborative scenario planning practices in urban and regional planning, and includes case studies, an overview of digital tools, and a project evaluation framework. Concludes with a discussion of how scenarios can be used to address urban inequalities. Intended for a broad audience"--Provided by the publisher"--
Author: Kjell Nilsson Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642305296 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 453
Book Description
Presently, peri-urbanisation is one of the most pervasive processes of land use change in Europe with strong impacts on both the environment and quality of life. It is a matter of great urgency to determine strategies and tools in support of sustainable development. The book synthesizes the results of PLUREL, a large European Commission funded research project (2007-2010). Tools and strategies of PLUREL address main challenges of managing land use in peri-urban areas. These results are presented and illustrated by means of 7 case studies which are at the core of the book. This volume presents a novel, future oriented approach to the planning and management of peri-urban areas with a main focus on scenarios and sustainability impact analysis. The research is unique in that it focuses on the future by linking quantitative scenario modeling and sustainability impact analysis with qualitative and in-depth analysis of regional strategies, as well as including a study at European level with case study work also involving a Chinese case study.
Author: Evan Hillebrand Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262028891 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 245
Book Description
Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan
Author: Publisher: ISBN: 9780881323832 Category : Business Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Provides a glimpse inside how one of the largest and most successful companies in the world views the future unfolding and insight into what Shell weighs and thinks about as it make judgments and decisions about the future course of its business.
Author: David Holmgren
Author: David Holmgren
Author: Liam Fahey
Author: Oecd
Author: Adam Kahane
Author: V. Kostakis
Author: Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele
Author: Robert Goodspeed
Author: Kjell Nilsson
Author: Evan Hillebrand
Author: