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Author: Bryce Cooke Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.
Author: Bryce Cooke Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
From 2006 to mid-2008 the international prices of agricultural commodities increased considerably, by a factor larger than two. This upward trend in agricultural prices captured the world's attention as a new food crisis was emerging. Several explanations for these movements in prices, ranging from demand-driven forces to supply shocks, have been provided by analysts, researchers, and development institutions. This paper is an attempt to empirically validate these explanations using time series econometrics and data at monthly frequency. We focus on the international price of corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans. First, we identify variables associated with the factors mentioned as causing the increase in these agricultural commodities prices. Second, we use time series analysis to try to quantitatively validate those explanations. The empirical work presented here includes first difference models and rolling Granger causality tests. Overall, our empirical analysis mainly provides evidence that financial activity in futures markets and proxies for speculation can help explain the observed change in food prices; any other explanation is not well supported by our time series analysis.
Author: Ronald Trostle Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437988342 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Between early June 2010 and February 2011, prices of food commodities increased sharply, surpassing the 2008 peaks that had spread anxiety among policymakers and low-income consumers around the world. Most of the long-term trends in agricultural production and consumption that contributed to the 2002-06 price increases and the 2007-08 price spike also contributed to the recent price surge. This report describes the factors that have contributed to the large and rapid increase in agricultural prices during the past year. It focuses particularly on food commodity prices¿which have risen 60 percent since June 2010. Charts and tables. This is a print on demand edition of an important, hard-to-find publication.
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319282018 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 626
Book Description
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author: Randy Schnepf Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437985270 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 33
Book Description
The heightened commodity price volatility of 2008 and 2010 and the subsequent acceleration in U.S. food price inflation associated with those market shifts generated questions about farm and food price movements. This report addresses the nature and measurement of retail food price inflation. Contents of this report: Intro.; Consumer Demand; The Consumer Price Index (CPI); Consumer Income and Expenditures; Recent Food Price Inflation; Federal Spending for Domestic Food Assistance Programs: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly Food Stamps); Child Nutrition; The WIC Program; Additional Commodity Assistance Programs; Foreign Food Aid. Charts and tables. A print on demand report.
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1441976345 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 231
Book Description
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Author: United States. Department of Agriculture. Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service Publisher: ISBN: Category : Food prices Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
Retail food prices in the United States rose an average of over 9 percent annually from 1973 to 1979. The reasons these increases occurred and what can be done to slow the rate of increase are examined. They also provide an overview of the food delivery system. Substantially reducing the upward movement in food prices will require the same long-term effort needed to reduce general inflation. In addition, actions to reduce the volatility in commodity prices and commodity trade flows also appear needed.
Author: United States. Department of Agriculture. Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service Publisher: ISBN: Category : Agriculture Languages : en Pages : 12
Book Description
Abstract: A USDA report summarizes the causes of food price inflation. Retail food prices in the United States rose over90% annually from 1973 to 1979. Increases in prices result from higher farm-level commodity prices and higher marketingcosts. Food production costs, trade policies, food marketing costs, and structural changes are controllable in varying degrees. Control of fluctuations due to weather and the biological nature of food production processes is unlikely. Consumers are partially responsible for food priceincreases through rising incomes and changing lifestyles. Reduction of the upward movement in food prices will requirea long-term effort. The Government, food industry, and consumers can slow price increases by 1) supporting programsto reduce inflation rate; 2) encouraging price competition; 3) encouraging consumer nutrition education; 4) stabilizing trade flows; 5) reviewing regulations; 6) eliminating labor practices and policies that limit savings; 7) encouraging new technology, especially packaging, adoption.
Author: Jean-Paul Chavas Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 022612908X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 440
Book Description
There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.
Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145520112X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of which—the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate—explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.
Author: Bryce Cooke
Author: Bryce Cooke
Author: Ronald Trostle
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl
Author: Randy Schnepf
Author: Derek Headey and Shenggen Fan
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Author: United States. Department of Agriculture. Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Author: United States. Department of Agriculture. Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache