Sources of Change in the Future Security Environment PDF Download

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Author: Edmond de Goncourt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Authors, French
Languages : fr
Pages :

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Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Nora Bensahel
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 083303619X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 369

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This report identifies several important trends that are shaping regional security. It examines traditional security concerns, such as energy security and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as newer challenges posed by political reform, economic reform, civil-military relations, leadership change, and the information revolution. The report concludes by identifying the implications of these trends for U.S. foreign policy.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Author:
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ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Author: Michael Pillsbury
Publisher: National Defense University (NDU)
ISBN:
Category : China
Languages : en
Pages : 436

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This study offers over 600 selected quotations from the writings of over 200 Chinese authors published from 1994 to 1999. Analysis and interpretation are kept to a minimum so that the Chinese may speak for themselves. Many Chinese scholars assisted with this study by providing hard-to-get books and articles unfamiliar to most Westerners. Half the authors were interviewed in China. They explained some of the viewpoints in recent debates about the future security environment. Debates in China are generally concealed, and frequently authors pretend they do not exist. However muted they may be, China's debates about the future nevertheless exist and merit attention if we are to understand the premises of China's national strategy and set a baseline from which to measure any future change in these premises.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309145880
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 526

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Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309278562
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 253

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Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Author: Tyler H. Lippert
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030145603
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 263

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This book offers a prospective analysis of the anticipated security consequences of climate change in relation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Using climate and security literature to complement recent foresight and scenario analysis developed by NATO, the author applies the International Risk Governance Council’s (IRGC) Risk Governance Framework to identify the considerations and actions that could assist NATO in a context where climate and environmental factors more intensively shape security. Tyler Lippert explores how climate change has the potential to increase the need for humanitarian assistance and disaster response, to create tension over shared resources, to renew and enhance geo-political interest in the Arctic, and to deepen concern with respect to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Within this new political and environmental reality, NATO must consider how to adapt to meet new demands, prepare for new security challenges, as well as manage unforeseen consequences. Offering a corrective, this book identifies near-term actions for NATO to improve its risk governance posture, providing a basis upon which longer-range policy considerations can be developed. This analysis is only the opening salvo of what is likely to be a complicated process that spans many years, if not decades. However, in mapping the risk governance dimensions to the security and climate nexus from the perspective of NATO, Lippert provides a foundation for risk-based policy planning for NATO. The book will be of immense value to policy and decision makers: NATO leadership and its affiliated organizations as well as to academics across a broad span of subject areas, particularly environmental sociology, defense and foreign policy, and the political sciences.