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Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451973683 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451973683 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 104
Book Description
This paper examines determinants and leading indicators of banking crises. The paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451974205 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 148
Book Description
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451974558 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 116
Book Description
This economic journal contains theoretical and empirical analyses of varous macroeconomic issues. The studies are prepapred by IMF research staff or consultants. Subjects covered inclulde balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary systems and policies, public finances, international trade, economic growth, and some sectoral analyses. The last issue of the year contains an index to the volume. Approximately 200 pages in each issue.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451969066 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 203
Book Description
Selections from this paper were delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 8, 1965.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451949421 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 191
Book Description
This paper discusses the causes of the imbalance of international payments. Under the forces of supply and demand, gold came to have a certain value in relation to goods, which enabled it to function smoothly as a medium of reserve and settlement. This value varied somewhat from time to time under the influence of new discoveries or the exhaustion of existing sources. Of all the particular imbalances in the international payments pattern, that between the dollar and other currencies is the greatest. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to measure the amount of imbalance existing. Europe has made considerable and, to some extent, successful efforts to expand direct sales to the United States. It is in the sphere of finished manufactures principally that one could hope for an expansion of exports by an organized export drive or currency devaluation, other categories of goods depending more on the level of US production and national income.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589064755 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 193
Book Description
This last issue for 2005 comprises seven new papers, including a contribution to the journal's occasional Special Data Section about domestic debt markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, and also an in-depth look at the internal job market for entry-level economists at the IMF. The remaining articles cover toics as diverse as: modeling of asset markets, exchange rates in developing countries, international bank claims on Latin America, the effectiveness of "early warning" systems, and the use (by emerging market countries) of the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781589061224 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451972679 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
This paper surveys theoretical issues and empirical evidence on the effects of central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets on exchange rate movements. The focus is on the ability of fully sterilized intervention to influence exchange rates in a predictable manner. Theoretical considerations suggest that the exchange rate may be affected by intervention if assets denominated in different currencies are imperfect substitutes, thus creating opportunities for intervention (undertaken for portfolio balance reasons) to modify interest differentials and, hence, the exchange rate. The same conclusion emerges when one looks at the effects of intervention on risk premiums in the foreign exchange markets, on differences between offshore and domestic interest rates, and on covered international interest differentials. The lack of any firm evidence that portfolio balance effects resulting from intervention in foreign exchange markets affect exchange rates predictably suggests that intervention policy cannot be distinguished from general monetary policy for practical purposes. This, in turn, implies that attempts to use these two policy instruments independently may lead to lesser, rather than to greater, exchange rate stability.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589065816 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 183
Book Description
This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451972989 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 148
Book Description
The proposal to set up an international debt facility to buy the debt of developing countries at a discount and then mark down its contractual value is analyzed. The paper considers the central question of how the debtor countries, creditor banks, and owners of the facility would be affected; in particular, what redistribution of gains and losses there would be among them. The “market price effect” and the “ceiling effect” are distinguished. A crucial consideration is whether debt retained by banks is subordinated to debt bought by the facility.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.