Author: Bruce W. Bennett Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833081756 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 343
Book Description
A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences in North Korea and beyond. At the very least, a collapse would reduce the already scarce food and essential goods available to the population, in part due to hoarding and increasing costs. This could lead to a humanitarian disaster. Factions emerging after a collapse could plunge the country into civil war that spills over into neighboring countries. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could be used and even proliferated. This report examines ways of controlling and mitigating the consequences, recognizing that the Republic of Korea (ROK) and its U.S. ally will almost certainly need to intervene militarily in the North, likely seeking Korean unification as the ultimate outcome. But such an intervention requires serious preparation. North Koreans must be convinced that they will be treated well and could actually have better lives after unification. The allies need to prepare to deliver humanitarian aid in the North, stop conflict, demilitarize the North Korean military and security services over time, and secure and eventually eliminate North Korean WMD. Potential Chinese intervention must be addressed, ideally leading to cooperation with ROK and U.S. forces. Plans are needed for liberating North Korean political prisons before the guards execute the prisoners. Property rights need to be addressed. The ROK must sustain its military capabilities despite major reductions in force size due to very low birthrates. And ROK reluctance to broadly address North Korean collapse must be overcome so that plans in these areas can move forward.
Author: Tara O Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137598018 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 183
Book Description
This book highlights the increasing risk of North Korea’s collapse and considers the necessary actions that would enable the neighboring powers to prepare for such an event. North Korea's deteriorating economic conditions, its reliance on external assistance, and the degree of information penetration all provide hints of its collapse. Whether the chance is high or low, the collapse of North Korea and subsequent Korean unification would drastically alter the geostrategic landscape and profoundly affect the national interests of the regional powers—South Korea, China, the United States, Japan, and Russia. The most desirable scenario for a post-unification Korean Peninsula is a successfully developed and integrated non-nuclear Korea acting as a responsible regional and world stakeholder. This work considers the major challenges expected after a North Korean collapse, including the control of nuclear weapons, disorder in the immediate aftermath of collapse, and economic and social integration. The author then outlines how regional powers need to prepare to handle these challenges in order to minimize suffering and to set the foundation for long-term development and regional stability.
Author: U. S. Department of Defense Publisher: ISBN: 9781520935966 Category : Languages : en Pages : 81
Book Description
This study will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this study attempts to predict the North Korean people's possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regime's control system and recent changes. This study also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case.CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. IMPORTANCE * C. PROBLEM AND HYPHOTHESIS * D. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Conceptualizing DDR * 2. Lessons Learned * 3. Applicability to North Korea * E. METHODS AND SOURCES * F. THESIS OVERVIEW * CHAPTER II - NORTH KOREAN ATTITUDE TOWARD UPHEAVAL * A. INTRODUCTION * B. INSIDE NORTH KOREA * 1. Foundation of the Social Control System * a. Recent Changes in the Social Control System * 2. Songbun System * a. Recent Changes in the Songbun System * 3. Juche Ideology * a. Recent Changes in Ideology * 4. A Garrison State * a. The Status of The Korean People's Army * b. Capabilities * c. Reserve Forces * 5. Implications * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER III - NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE * A. INTRODUCTION * B. REGIME COLLAPSE * 1. Defining the Status of Regime Collapse * 2. Scenarios and Assumptions * a. Critical Uncertainties * b. First Scenario * c. Second Scenario * d. Third Scenario * e. Fourth Scenario * 3. Common Traits in All Scenarios * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - POLICY RECOMENDATIONS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS * 1. Policy Recommendations for the First Scenario * 2. Policy Recommendations for the Second Scenario * 3. Policy Recommendations for the Third Scenario * 4. Policy Recommendations for the Fourth Scenario * C. POLICY RECOMMENDATION EFFECTIVE IN ALL SCENARIOS * D. CONCLUSION * LIST OF REFERENCES
Author: Jonathan D. Pollack Publisher: RAND Corporation ISBN: Category : Korean reunification question (1945- ) Languages : en Pages : 124
Book Description
This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy respones.
Author: Kyung-Ae Park Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield ISBN: 1442218126 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 329
Book Description
Following the death of Kim Jong Il, North Korea has entered a period of profound transformation laden with uncertainty. This authoritative book brings together the world's leading North Korea experts to analyze both the challenges and prospects the country is facing. Drawing on the contributors' expertise across a range of disciplines, the book examines North Korea's political, economic, social, and foreign policy concerns. Considering the implications for Pyongyang's transition, it focuses especially on the transformation of ideology, the Worker's Party of Korea, the military, effects of the Arab Spring, the emerging merchant class, cultural infiltration from the South, Western aid, and global economic integration. The contributors also assess the impact of North Korea's new policies on China, South Korea, the United States, and the rest of the world. Comprehensive and deeply knowledgeable, their analysis is especially crucial given the power consolidation efforts of the new leadership underway in Pyongyang and the implications for both domestic and international politics. Contributions by: Nicholas Anderson, Charles Armstrong, Bradley Babson, Victor Cha, Bruce Cumings, Nicholas Eberstadt, Ken Gause, David Kang, Andrei Lankov, Woo Young Lee, Liu Ming, Haksoon Paik, Kyung-Ae Park, Terence Roehrig, Jungmin Seo, and Scott Snyder.
Author: Bruce W. Bennett Publisher: Rand Corporation ISBN: 0833097989 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
For years, the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them.
Author: Andrei Lankov Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199390037 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
In The Real North Korea, Lankov substitutes cold, clear analysis for the overheated rhetoric surrounding this opaque police state. Based on vast expertise, this book reveals how average North Koreans live, how their leaders rule, and how both survive
Author: Youngjun Kim Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1317375696 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 283
Book Description
This book investigates the origins of the North Korean garrison state by examining the development of the Korean People’s Army and the legacies of the Korean War. Despite its significance, there are very few books on the Korean People’s Army with North Korean primary sources being difficult to access. This book, however, draws on North Korean documents and North Korean veterans’ testimonies, and demonstrates how the Korean People’s Army and the Korean War shaped North Korea into a closed, militarized and xenophobic garrison state and made North Korea seek Juche (Self Reliance) ideology and weapons of mass destruction. This book maintains that the youth and lower classes in North Korea considered the Korean People’s Army as a positive opportunity for upward social mobility. As a result, the North Korean regime secured its legitimacy by establishing a new class of social elites wherein they offered career advancements for persons who had little standing and few opportunities under the preceding Japanese dominated regime. These new elites from poor working and peasant families became the core supporters of the North Korean regime today. In addition, this book argues that, in the aftermath of the Korean War, a culture of victimization was established among North Koreans which allowed Kim Il Sung to use this culture of fear to build and maintain the garrison state. Thus, this work illustrates how the North Korean regime has garnered popular support for the continuation of a militarized state, despite the great hardships the people are suffering. This book will be of much interest to students of North Korea, the Korean War, Asian politics, Cold War Studies, military and strategic studies, and international history.
Author: Bruce W. Bennett
Author: Tara O
Author: U. S. Department of Defense
Author: Jonathan D. Pollack
Author: Paul B. Stares
Author: Kyung-Ae Park
Author: Bruce W. Bennett
Author: Mike Mullen
Author: Andrei Lankov
Author: Youngjun Kim