Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability PDF Download

Author: Eric Barthalon
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231538308
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 445

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Book Description
Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Author: Charles J. Whalen
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 0857934848
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 241

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Book Description
ÔThis book advances the re-unification of the Institutionalist and Keynesian traditions, now unstoppable, which when last combined eighty years ago proved the power of progressive and pragmatic thought. Let the spirit of Keynes and Commons inspire our new era Ð and perhaps this time a coherent, enduring and useful academic economics may also result.Õ Ð James K. Galbraith, President, Association for Evolutionary Economics (2012) ÔFinancial Instability and Economic Security after the Great Recession is a welcomed volume for a variety of reasons. The book does a good job of: 1) surveying the foundations of Post-Keynesian Institutionalism (PKI); 2) unfolding new ways of understanding and appreciating the economic and institutional insights of Hyman Minsky (which are many); and 3) providing new economic analysis into the recent financial crisis both in the United States and globally. . . How uncertainty affects institutions and individual behavior is something that needs more exploration, and this volume contributes to a much-needed discussion on how both institutionalists and Post-Keynesians can work together on this. . . a very interesting and stimulating book that provides some new insights in the development of both Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian thought.Õ Ð Heterodox Economics Newsletter ÔThis important and fascinating book confirms that policymakers would do well to brush up on their reading of Hyman Minsky as they wrestle with the ongoing effects of the global financial crisis. It makes a compelling case for understanding the current situation as a crisis of capitalism Ð a system that veers between stability and instability Ð and for managing and regulating economies on the basis of MinskyÕs insight that stability breeds instability. MinskyÕs insight was psychological, not merely economic, and this volume furthers the argument for including disciplines such as psychology and philosophy in understanding markets. It also helps us recognize the truth that, in the end, economies are human constructs and it will require strong doses of humanism to successfully manage our economic future.Õ Ð Michael E. Lewitt, Harch Capital Management and author of The Death of Capital: How Creative Policy Can Restore Stability ÔThe volume offers an intriguing economic frame that vastly broadens the possibilities for economic research and shifts the focus of economists from markets to people. . . This volume makes a coherent and articulate case for a new interpretation of existing economic theories with long traditions that could help inform both research and policy in the future.Õ Ð Christian Weller, Perspectives on Work ÔA failing orthodoxy calls out for powerful alternatives. Neoclassical economics is that failed orthodoxy; Whalen and his contributors are the critical alternative. In this finely orchestrated edited volume, the contributors take turns wielding a sledgehammer to demolish the weakened edifice of neoclassical theory. Then, each adds a brick to a new theoretical foundation as they work together to expand upon the Post-Keynesian Institutionalist approach, especially the ideas laid down by Hyman Minsky. Their critique is clear and the alternative theory and policies they present are critical for anyone trying to understand the nature and operation of market-based economies.Õ Ð Dorene Isenberg, University of Redlands, US ÔA convergence of Post Keynesian and Institutional economics, which have much in common, offers a sound and practical way forward after the Great Recession. By drawing inspiration from Hyman Minsky and tracing similarities in the economics of Veblen, Commons and Keynes, this book pursues such a convergence in an original and thought-provoking manner. The result is a new way of thinking about economics, one based on serious economic theory and rooted firmly in economic reality.Õ Ð Philip Arestis, University of Cambridge, UK ÔFinancial Instability and Economic Security after the Great Recession explores the close relationship between Institutional and Post Keynesian economics, thereby contributing greatly to our understanding of the recent Ð indeed, still ongoing Ð crisis in the U.S. economy and global financial markets. Together these two schools of thought provide coherent diagnoses and prescriptions that are wholly lacking in orthodox neoclassical theory. We are reminded that institutions matter, unregulated financial markets are not self-correcting, economies stall at equilibriums far below potential, and activist government is the only path to rebuilding a stable and balanced economy. This book will help greatly in the important task of rethinking economics and pointing us in the direction of reform and recovery.Õ Ð Timothy A. Canova, Chapman University School of Law, US ÔFor those who take the work of Hyman Minsky seriously, this collection of essays provides a most welcome and refreshing examination of modern economic reality. It also demonstrates just how fruitful a conjoining of Post Keynesian and Institutionalist theory can be. Whalen has chosen his authors wisely, and, taken as a whole, their contributions provide an illuminating inquiry into what Minsky called Òmoney-manager capitalismÓ. The authors continue in the Minsky tradition, complementing his theoretical work and driving it forward. I highly recommend this book to not only economists who consider themselves Post Keynesian or Institutionalist, but to all who are looking for a way out of the theoretical impasse posed by conventional economics.Õ Ð John Henry, University of Missouri-Kansas City, US ÔIn the 1930s, economic theory and policy underwent dramatic change; such a shift occurs rarely and only in times of great calamity. We are in a similar period today, and this book enlightens economic policy and contributes to change that is ongoing in the mainstream of economic thinking. Economists and policymakers alike will benefit from this book.Õ Ð Ronnie J. Phillips, Colorado State University, US ÔCharles Whalen has been the torch-bearer for Post-Keynesian Institutionalism for many years. The fruit of his thought and time is reaped in the publication of this valuable work that should be of interest to all economists, particularly those concerned with the macroeconomic workings of the real economy. While there are multiple authors, Whalen wrote or co-authored half of the chapters, giving the book coherence not usually found in a collection of essays; a first-rate book.Õ Ð Charles K. Wilber, University of Notre Dame, US ÔThe end of the Great Moderation (a period characterized by modest business cycles) and the demise of its intellectual underpinnings, such as the efficient market hypothesis, opens the door to fresh thinking about the evolution of the US and world economies. This volume responds with a compendium of insights that grow out of Post-Keynesian Institutionalism. Central constructs in the analysis Ð essential to understanding the new Great Instability and to generating constructive policy responses Ð include money-manager capitalism, financial regulation, and economic evolution. The book provides a persuasive basis for reconstructing macroeconomics and for finding sets of policies that could lead to greater world prosperity. This is an important contribution, since much of the intellectual and policy response to the current crisis has challenged the status quo very little and has not inoculated the global economy from further instability.Õ Ð Kenneth P. Jameson, University of Utah, US ÔThis book makes a major contribution toward developing an economic framework to address the policy failures that precipitated the 2007Ð2009 financial crisis and slowed recovery from the Great Recession. It begins that process with wonderfully clear analyses of the influence of earlier non-classical economic thinkers on Keynes and Minsky and then uses their insights and hypotheses to critique the economic thinking that failed to anticipate the crisis. But, unlike many other excellent analyses of recent events, it also identifies policy options capable of preventing future crises and ensuring a more rapid recovery. The authors have laid a strong foundation for the theoretical perspective required to secure the broadly shared prosperity that many view as the overriding objective of an economic system.Õ Ð Jane DÕArista, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, US ÔInstitutionalists and Post Keynesians have a great deal in common, so much so that it is surprising how little cooperation there has been between them. This innovative and engaging volume will help to put this right. Several of the contributors identify the ideas of Hyman Minsky as providing a bridge between the two traditions (in much the same way as Micha Kalecki connects Post Keynesian and Marxian thought), suggesting important ways these camps can profit from each otherÕs insights. Across the volume, the crucial concepts of ÔfuturityÕ, expectations and fundamental uncertainty shape the authorsÕ approach to economic theory, while an insistence on the need for a Ômore wisely managed capitalismÕ unites their policy discussions. This book deserves to be widely read; it will have important consequences.Õ Ð John E. King, La Trobe University, Australia This timely book rethinks economic theory and policy by addressing the problem of economic instability and the need to secure broadly shared prosperity. It stresses that advancing economics in the wake of the Great Recession requires an evolutionary standpoint, greater attention to uncertainty and expectations, and the integration of finance into macroeconomics. The result is a broader array of policy options Ð and challenges Ð than conventional economics presents. Building on the pioneering work of Thorstein Veblen, John R. Commons and John Maynard Keynes, the authors synthesize key insights from Institutional and Post Keynesian economics into Post-Keynesian Institutionalism. Then they use that framework to explore an array of economic problems confronting the United States and the world. Inspired by the work of Hyman Minsky, the authors place financial relations at the center of their analysis of how economies operate and change over time. Students and scholars of macroeconomics and public policy will find this book of interest, as will a wider audience of financial analysts, policymakers and citizens interested in understanding economic booms and downturns.

Author: Piero Ferri
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub
ISBN: 9781849809160
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 195

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Book Description
'The book offers a rich, and relatively novel, body of theoretical mechanisms through which financial instability can be understood. the models presented are given careful and thorough exposition, and could readily provide a framework for numerous theoretical extensions, particularly appending more detailed modeling of the financial system. As a compendium of Ferri's important contributions, the book would be a valuable addition to research libraries, and should be read by all those working within the Minskian tradition.' - William McColloch, Review of Keynesian Economics

Author: Robert Skidelsky
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191615501
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208

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Book Description
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) is a central thinker of the twentieth century, not just an economic theorist and statesman, but also in economics, philosophy, politics, and culture. In this Very Short Introduction Lord Skidelsky, a renowned biographer of Keynes, explores his ethical and practical philosophy, his monetary thought, and provides an insight into his life and works. In the recent financial crisis Keynes's theories have become more timely than ever, and remain at the centre of political and economic discussion. With a look at his major works and his contribution to twentieth-century economic thought, Skidelsky considers Keynes's legacy on today's society. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Author: J. Hendrickson
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137311053
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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Book Description
This book offers a critical look at prominent theories of financial crisis to try to understand how prepared the profession is for identifying the next financial crisis. An analysis of the first financial crisis of the twenty-first century serves as a starting point for rethinking the efficacy of existing economic models and theories.

Author: Maria Alejandra Madi
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1527548252
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 163

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Book Description
This book examines the constructive crossing between philosophy, semiotics, and economics. The complexity of current socioeconomic policy problems demands revision of our conceptual outlooks and recognition of the importance of fresh insights into Keynes and Hayek in the context of capitalism and globalization, contributing to unprecedented social, political, and environmental challenges. Their contributions to economic theory, policy making and philosophical foundations are reconsidered here using the semiotic approach of Charles S. Peirce. The book provides accessible discussions on the role of semiotics in social sciences. Approaching philosophical problems using a semiotic approach requires overcoming and redefining preconceived ideas and conceptualizations of such problems. Throughout this work, the combination of Charles Peirce’s philosophical background with Keynes’s and Hayek’s contributions, as influential economic thinkers, permits a multifaceted dialogue, creating new conceptual, theoretical and methodological frameworks, preparing the reader for relevant real-world debates. This text serves to renew the bond between philosophy, semiotics, and economics and to rethink the paths to complexity.

Author: M. Itoh
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230375782
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318

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Book Description
To explain the pronounced instability of the world economy since the 1970s, the book offers an important and systematic theoretical examination of money and finance. It re-examines the classical foundations of political economy and the creator of money. It assesses all of the important theoretical schools since then, including Marxist, Keynesian, post-Keynesian and monetarist thinkers. By presenting important insights from Japanese political economy previously ignored in Anglo-Saxon economics, the authors make a significant contribution to radical political economy based on a thorough historical analysis of capitalism.

Author: Laurent Ferrara
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319790757
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 298

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Book Description
This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Author: Fredj Jawadi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319987143
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Author: Ismail Şiriner
Publisher: IJOPEC Publication
ISBN: 0956825613
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 490

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Book Description
Kriz ve kalkınmanın, tarihsel bir yaklaşımla ve ekonomi politikalarındaki değişim süreci ile birlikte ele alınması ve analiz edilmesi hem krizi anlamak, hem de ekonomik sistemin yeniden üretim mekanizmalarını kavramak için gerekli görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda kitap, yaşanan kriz, istikrar, kalkınma ve büyüme süreçlerinin dinamiklerini çözümlemeye yönelmiş ve bu dinamikler bankacılıktan sanayiye, teknoloji kullanımından esnek emek örgütlenmesine, ihracata yönelik büyüme stratejilerinden iktisadi bağımlılık ilişkilerine kadar uzanmaktadır. Sürecin, gerek akademik / kuramsal, gerekse siyasal / hegemonik / ideolojik düzeylerde değerlendirilmesi kitapta yer alan çalışmaların seçiminde öncelikle yer almıştır.