Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations PDF Download

Author: Kenneth G. Manton
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461393329
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 367

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Book Description
Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.

Author: Kenneth G. Manton
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783540979531
Category : Aged
Languages : en
Pages : 371

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Book Description

Author: Kenneth G Manton
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781461393337
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 384

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Book Description

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309038812
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 340

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Book Description
It is not news that each of us grows old. What is relatively new, however, is that the average age of the American population is increasing. More and better information is required to assess, plan for, and meet the needs of a graying population. The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century examines social, economic, and demographic changes among the aged, as well as many health-related topics: health promotion and disease prevention; quality of life; health care system financing and use; and the quality of careâ€"especially long-term care. Recommendations for increasing and improving the data availableâ€"as well as for ensuring timely access to themâ€"are also included.

Author: Institute for the Future
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470932511
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 428

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Book Description
Health and Health Care 2010, Second Edition, offers well-researched coverage of health insurance, managed care, health care providers, the health workforce, medical technologies, information technologies, consumerism, public health services, mental health, child health, health of the elderly, chronic care, and health behaviors, and more. Each of the volume's topics starts with historical background leading into the contemporary setting and is followed with predicted short-term developments and forecasts reaching to the year 2010. Acknowledging the difficulty of long-term predictions, even by experts, the projections are cast as "stormy," "long and winding," or "sunny."

Author: Kenneth G. Manton
Publisher: Department of Health and Human Services Ter for Disease Control N
ISBN:
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Book Description

Author: Sheila R. Zedlewski
Publisher: The Urban Insitute
ISBN: 9780877664819
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 264

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Book Description
Society must plan now for the requirements of the next century's elderly population. The authors use microsimulation to project the number of elderly, as well as their future incomes, living arrangements, and social service needs. They then show that the increase in demand for support services will grow drastically, even with optimistic assumptions regarding disability rates.

Author: Jacob S. Siegel
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9789400713154
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 985

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Book Description
With this book, Siegel, an internationally known demographer and gerontologist, has made a unique contribution to the fledgling fields of health demography, and the demography and epidemiology of aging. The book represents a felicitous union of epidemiology, gerontology, and demography, and appears to be the first and only comprehensive text on this subject now available. Drawing on a wide range of sciences in addition to demography, gerontology, and epidemiology, including medical sociology, biostatistics, public policy, bioethics, and molecular biology, the author treats theoretical and applied issues, links methods and findings, covers the material internationally, nationally, and locally, and while focusing on the elderly, treats the entire life course. The methods, materials, and pespectives of demography and epidemiology are brought to bear on such topics as the prospects for future increases in human longevity, the relative contribution of life style, environment, genetics, and chance in human longevity, the measurement of the share of healthy years in total life expectancy, the role of population growth in the rising costs of health care, and the applications of health demography in serving the health needs of local communities. The separate chapters systematically develop the topics of the sources and quality of health data; mortality, life tables, and the measurement of health status; the interrelationships of health, on the one hand, and mortality, fertility, migration, and age structure, on the other; health conditions in the less developed countries; the concepts and theories of aging and projections of the aged population; and local health applications, public health policy, and bioethical issues in health demography. Given its comprehensiveness, clarity, interdisciplinary scope, and authencity, this book appeals to a wide range of users, from students and teachers of medical sociology, the demography of aging, and public health studies to practitioners in these areas, both as a text in health demography and the demography/epidemiology of aging, and as a reference work in these fields.

Author: Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780792327837
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 244

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Book Description
The first STG report to embody scenarios on population aging, health and care appeared in 1985. This report describes developments since 1985, reviewing the current position and setting out updated scenarios. The 1985 report set out three scenarios, in which the central focus was on the developing future pattern of demand for care by the elderly. The present report too sets out three scenarios, centring on the demand for care, in which account is taken of a variety of factors; it also details four strategic scenarios whose central focus is on the developing supply of care and which set supply and demand one against the other. Three of the strategic scenarios -- emphasizing respectively intramural, extramural and informal care -- suppose the demand for care to be met in full; the fourth scenario, which rolls current policies on the care of the elderly forward into the future, pinpoints discrepancies between the need for care and the extent to which that need is likely to be met, making clear in so doing that a review of long-term policy for the elderly is urgently needed.

Author: Graziella Caselli
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780198233374
Category : Family & Relationships
Languages : en
Pages : 390

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Book Description
In both developed and developing countries, the elderly have enjoyed significant declines in mortality and increased survival. At the same time, these trends have also given rise to many uncertainties and demands on resources which are often not given their due attention. Future mortality declines, particularly among the elderly, are often overshadowed by fears of their increasing share of the total population and the demands that this places on society to resolve the problems stemming from longer survival - problems, for example, which are not just a question of guaranteeing longer life but also of ensuring an acceptable health status. In recent years, there has been a substantial literature on many facets of the daily lives of the elderly. This volume is a further contribution to the literature, pinpointing the most recent trends in the survival of the elderly and in their physical and mental health. It also describes possible scenarios for the early decades of the twenty-first century. To delineate current knowledge with regard to the health and survival of the elderly is a first step towards preparing projections and improving the efficacy of health policies for the elderly. The first section of this volume is dedicated to a discussion about the age at which people become `elderly' and to the application of evolutionary theory to demographic models of human mortality. The second section looks in more detail at different aspects of morbidity and mortality trends and their underlying causes. The third section deals with mortality projections, ranging from the hypotheses to problems of methodology. The fourth section covers social and health strategies to improve the survival and quality of life of the elderly, in view of the fact that more and more people may expect to live longer and longer, and perhaps in increasingly better health.