When is Fiscal Adjustment an Illusion? PDF Download

Author: William Russell Easterly
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Assets (Accounting)
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Author: William Easterly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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A simple model shows that when an outside agent forces a reduction in a government's conventional deficit (debt accumulation), the government will respond by lowering its asset accumulation or by increasing hidden liabilities. That leaves net worth unchanged, so fiscal adjustment is an illusion.Fiscal adjustment is an illusion when it lowers the budget deficit or public debt but leaves the government's net worth unchanged, says Easterly.Conventional measures of the budget deficit largely measure the change in explicit public sector liabilities (debt). A more appropriate measure of the deficit would be the change in public sector net worth, but many criticize this concept as impossible to measure.Easterly takes a positive, rather than normative, approach to the net worth definition of fiscal balance.A simple model shows that when an outside agent forces a reduction in a government's conventional deficit (debt accumulation), the government will respond by lowering its asset accumulation or by increasing hidden liabilities. That leaves net worth unchanged, so fiscal adjustment is an illusion.He performs some simple empirical tests on the observational predictions of the model, examining a sample of countries with World Bank and International Monetary Fund adjustment programs and case studies of Maastricht Euro countries.The results confirm the model predictions: Fiscal adjustment in these countries was at least partly an illusion.This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the political economy of policymaking. The author may be contacted at [email protected].

Author: Timothy Irwin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475571321
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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This proposed SDN surveys the various accounting stratagems which governments have used to meet fiscal targets—thereby sidestepping the need for true adjustment—and suggests remedial actions to limit this type of fiscal non-transparency. Types of creative accounting covered includes, for instance, currency swaps to hide a debt build-up (as in Greece in 2001–07), sale and leaseback of government property (for example, in the United States), assumption of long-term pension obligations in exchange for short-term revenue (Argentina, Hungary, and other Eastern European countries), use of public-private partnerships to defer the recognition of investment spending (for instance, Portugal), and reliance on non-cash compensation (such as pension rights) to reduce measured wage bills (in the United States, United Kingdom, etc.) As is evident from the examples given, these fiscal tricks have recently come under increased international scrutiny, highlighting the importance of good fiscal reporting, accounting, and transparency in general, for avoiding unpleasant surprises, ensuring government accountability, and containing fiscal vulnerabilities.

Author:
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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Author: Mr.Kenji Moriyama
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451856377
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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Several European Union countries have recently implemented or are envisaging fiscal that operations improve budgetary figures but have no structural impact on government finances. This paper evaluates some of these measures using a balance sheet approach. In particular, it examines the degree to which reductions in government debt in EU countries has been accompanied by a decumulation of government assets. In the run-up to Maastricht (1997) it finds a strong correlation between changes in government liabilities and government assets, and larger declines in government assets in countries starting from higher public debt levels.

Author: Lev M. Freinkman
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 9780821356043
Category : Budget deficits
Languages : en
Pages : 62

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Author: Hana Polackova Brixi
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Budget deficits
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Governments' contingent liabilities increase fiscal vulnerability, but are omitted in traditional measures of the current deficit. In the Czech Republic this omission may mean that fiscal adjustment has been overstated by 3 to 4 percent of annual GDP, with future budgets having to pay for past guarantees. The stock of existing contingent liabilities in Macedonia could add 2 to 4 percent of GDP to that country's future deficits.

Author: Mr.Timothy Irwin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475552823
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17

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When rights and obligations are not recognized as assets and liabilities on a government’s balance sheet, the government’s deficit can be reduced by selling off-balance-sheet assets or incurring off-balance-sheet liabilities. This paper examines how much progress has been made in recognizing assets and liabilities and thus dispelling the fiscal illusions that such transactions create. Looking at the accounts, government-finance statistics, and long-term fiscal projections produced in 28 advanced economies in the period since 2003, it finds good progress in the recognition of some assets and liabilities, such as accounts payable and simple financial assets, but much less in others, such as civil-service pensions.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589062744
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128

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Using a cross-country sample of 169 IMF-supported programs and detailed studies of 15 programs, this evaluation report examines various aspects of fiscal adjustment in IMF-supported programs. It presents evidence that does not support some critics’ view that IMF-supported programs typically adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal adjustment, nor the perception that programs always involve austerity by targeting reductions in public spending. The report also proposes a number of recommendations for IMF surveillance and program design in the future.

Author: Mr. Mike Seiferling
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147557035X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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This paper re-examines the stock-flow discrepancies of government debt and deficits and correlation with fiscal transparency. Applying the fully integrated relationship between financial stocks and flows allows for a more refined analysis of the deterministic components that make up the ‘stock-flow’ residual. Using partial measures of these stock-flow residuals, several empirical studies have found them to be significantly correlated with fiscaltransparency, inflation, fiscal rules, and banking crisis. Using fully integrated public finance data from the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook for a sample of 22 countries, the findings in this paper suggest that stock-flow residuals have a significantly smaller magnitude than previously assumed and are, in fact, not correlated with fiscal transparency. A stronger determinant of fiscal transparency scores appears to be the actual reporting of fiscal data covering general government, especially a full financial balance sheet.