Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models PDF Download

Author: Ray C. Fair
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674831803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 504

View

Book Description
This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.

Author: Ray C. Fair
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674875036
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 462

View

Book Description
In this book Ray Fair expounds powerful techniques for estimating and analyzing macroeconometric models. He takes advantage of the remarkable decrease in computational costs that has occurred since the early 1980s by implementing such sophisticated techniques as stochastic simulation. Testing Macroeconometric Models also incorporates the assumption of rational expectations in the estimation, solution, and testing of the models. And it presents the latest versions of Fair's models of the economies of the United States and other countries. After estimating and testing the U.S. model, Fair analyzes its properties, including those relevant to economic policymakers: the optimal monetary policy instrument, the effect of a government spending reduction on the government deficit, whether monetary policy is becoming less effective over time, and the sensitivity of policy effects to the assumption of rational expectations. Ray Fair has conducted research on structural macroeconometric models for more than twenty years. With interest increasing in the area, this book will be an essential reference for macroeconomists.

Author: Kenneth Frank Wallis
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 9781782541622
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 462

View

Book Description
'An excellent reference volume of this author's work, bringing together articles published over a 25 year span on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large scale macroeconomic modelling and the interface between them.' - Aslib Book Guide This major volume of essays by Kenneth F. Wallis features 28 articles published over a quarter of a century on the statistical analysis of economic time series, large-scale macroeconometric modelling, and the interface between them. The first part deals with time-series econometrics and includes significant early contributions to the development of the LSE tradition in time-series econometrics, which is the dominant British tradition and has considerable influence worldwide. Later sections discuss theoretical and practical issues in modelling seasonality and forecasting with applications in both large-scale and small-scale models. The final section summarizes the research programme of the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau, a unique comparison project among economy-wide macroeconometric models.

Author: Ray C. FAIR
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674036638
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 314

View

Book Description
Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a new age economy.

Author: Władysław Welfe
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642344682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435

View

Book Description
This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.

Author: Ragnar Nymoen
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811207534
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 586

View

Book Description
For Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.

Author: Götz Uebe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400

View

Book Description
This is the second edition, essentially a completely newly written state of the art introduction into the field of macro-econometric models. Its first focus is to present the different specifications and strands of ideas of macro-econometric models, its empirical and analytical uses in economic policy, economic theory, economic history and empirical applications. It documents the intellectual achievements and performance of applied macroeconomic models in general, theoretically and by typical and representative illustrations, leading the reader to the frontiers of present research. Secondly, the book is an introductory text into the bibliography of macro models, which is the background of the monograph. Recalling the field of macro-econometric models, there are additional appendices, e.g. explaining the keywords which cover this territory of economic knowledge, and documenting the huge use of such models. A multilingual cross-reference dictionary (German, English, French, Spanish, Italian) concludes the book.

Author: Charles G. Renfro
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 9781586034269
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 420

View

Book Description
This publication contains a substantial amount of detail about the broad history of the development of econometric software based on the personal recollections of many people. For economists, the computer has increasingly become the primary applied research tool, and it is software that makes the computer work.

Author: Gunnar Bårdsen
Publisher: Advanced Texts in Econometrics
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 368

View

Book Description
Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models ofexpectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaursto which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene.This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theoryand taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years.The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model ofincomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway.The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodelRIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.

Author: S.G. Hall
Publisher: North Holland
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 440

View

Book Description
This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself.An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.